Electric Power Outlook - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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Section 1 - Introduction Purpose Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2010-15 summarizes and discusses the current and future electric power supply and demand situation for the 11 investor-owned jurisdictional electric distribution companies (EDCs) operating within the Commonwealth and the entities responsible for maintaining the reliability of the bulk electric supply system within the region that encompasses the state. The Bureau of Conservation, Economics and Energy Planning prepared this report, pursuant to Title 66, Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes, Section 524(b). This report is submitted annually to the General Assembly, the Governor, the Office of Consumer Advocate and each affected public utility, and also is made available to the general public on the Commission’s website. 9 The information contained in this report includes highlights of the past year, EDCs' projections of energy demand and peak load. Since the eight largest EDCs operating in Pennsylvania represent 99.8 percent of jurisdictional electricity sales, information regarding the three smaller EDCs has been limited in this report. The report also provides a regional perspective with statistical information on the projected resources and aggregate peak loads for the region, which impacts Pennsylvania. Under Section 2809(e) of the Public Utility Code, the Commission has the authority to forbear from applying any requirements of the Code, including Section 524 and existing regulations promulgated thereto, which it found no longer to be necessary due to competition among electric generation suppliers. Thus, the Commission adopted revised regulations reflecting a reduction in reporting requirements and a reduction in the reporting horizon for energy demand, connected peak load and number of customers from 20 years to five years. Information regarding capital investments, energy costs, new generating facilities and expansions of existing facilities are no longer required. With the divestiture of generating facilities by the EDCs, the Commission relies on reports and analyses of regional entities, including the ReliabilityFirst Corporation and the PJM Interconnection, to obtain a more complete assessment of the current and future status of the electric power supply within the region. Informational sources include data submitted by EDCs, which is filed annually pursuant to the 10 Commission's regulations. Sources also include data submitted by regional reliability councils to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which is subsequently forwarded to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Any comments or conclusions contained in this report do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Commission or individual Commissioners. Although this report has been issued by the Commission, it is not to be considered or construed as approval or acceptance by the Commission of any of the plans, assumptions or calculations made by the EDCs or regional reliability entities and reflected in the information submitted. 9 See http://www.puc.state.pa.us/general/publications_reports/pdf/EPO_2011.pdf. 10 52 Pa. Code §§ 57.141—57.154. Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2010-15 1
Regional Reliability Organizations In Pennsylvania, all major electric distribution companies are interconnected with neighboring systems extending beyond state boundaries. These systems are organized into regional entities – regional reliability councils – which are responsible for ensuring the reliability of the bulk electric system. North American Electric Reliability Corporation In 2006, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), formerly operated as a voluntary organization, dependent on reciprocity and mutual self-interest, was certified as the Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) in the United States, pursuant to Section 215 of the Federal Power Act of 2005. Included in this certification was a provision for the ERO to delegate authority for the purpose of proposing and enforcing reliability standards by entering into delegation agreements with regional entities. Effective Jan. 1, 2007, NERC and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation merged, with the latter being the surviving entity (also referred to as NERC). As of June 18, 2007, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted NERC the legal authority to enforce reliability standards, and made compliance with those standards mandatory. NERC oversees the reliability of a bulk power system that provides electricity to 334 million people, has a total demand of 830,000 megawatts (MW), has 211,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines (230,000 volts and greater), and represents more than $1 trillion worth of assets. NERC’s members currently include eight regional reliability entities. Members of these regional entities include investor-owned utilities, federal and provincial entities, rural electric cooperatives, state/municipal and provincial utilities, independent power producers, independent system operators, merchant electricity generators, power marketers and end-use electricity customers, and account for virtually all the electricity supplied in the United States, Canada, and a portion of Baja California Norte, Mexico. The regional entity operating in Pennsylvania is ReliabilityFirst Corporation, which is the successor organization to three former NERC Regional Reliability Councils: MAAC, ECAR and MAIN. NERC establishes criteria, standards and requirements for its members and all control areas. All control areas must operate in a manner such that system instability, uncontrolled system separation and cascading outages will not occur as a result of the most severe single contingency. As of January 2011, NERC had 3,193 active violations, compared with 2006 the previous year. This increase is attributed to the implementation of NERC’s critical infrastructure protection (CIP) standards. Compliance enforcement was greatly improved by focusing resources on risks deemed most significant to the reliability of the bulk power system. As of Nov. 19, 2010, NERC had 1,939 registered entities on the NERC Compliance Registry. Enforcement actions are designed to ensure and improve bulk power system reliability by mitigating risk; ensuring transparent, efficient and fair processing; and communicating lessons learned to the industry. 11 11 NERC, 2010 Annual Report, May 2011. 2 Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Page 1 and 2: ElectricPowerOutlook forPennsylvani
Page 4 and 5: E xecutive Summar y Introduction Se
Page 6 and 7: Contents Section 1 - Introduction P
Page 10 and 11: NERC defines the bulk electric syst
Page 12 and 13: ReliabilityFirst Corporation The re
Page 14 and 15: PJM manages a sophisticated regiona
Page 16 and 17: Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
Page 18 and 19: The 2010 RTEP states that TrAIL pro
Page 20 and 21: Three public meetings were held in
Page 22 and 23: eliable service at the least cost t
Page 24 and 25: On June 3, 2010, the Commission app
Page 26 and 27: approval. The EDCs filed their Smar
Page 28 and 29: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 30 and 31: Figure 10 Average residential cost
Page 32 and 33: Duquesne has 121.6 miles of transmi
Page 34 and 35: Figure 14 FirstEnergy service terri
Page 36 and 37: Figure 15 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 38 and 39: Penelec’s Energy Efficiency and C
Page 40 and 41: its summer peak load increasing fro
Page 42 and 43: PPL Electric Utilities Corporation
Page 44 and 45: Figure 22 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 46 and 47: Figure 23 PECO Energy Company energ
Page 48 and 49: West Penn is a member of PJM and RF
Page 50 and 51: Figure 27 UGI Utilities Inc. energy
Page 52 and 53: Figure 29 Citizens' Electric Compan
Page 54 and 55: Wellsboro Electric Company Wellsbor
Page 56 and 57: the past two years, both peak deman
Page 58 and 59:
Figure 32 RFC 2010-2019 reserve mar
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The MISO net internal peak demand f
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Figure 35 PJM service area in Penns
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Figure 37 Existing generating capac
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Appendix A - Data Tables The follow
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Table A05 Metropolitan Edison Compa
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Table A13 Pennsylvania Power Compan
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Table A21 PECO Energy Company Table
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Appendix B - Plant Additions and Up
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Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
Page 78 and 79:
Location of queued generation inter
Page 80 and 81:
Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
Page 82 and 83:
Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
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Electric Power Outlook - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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