the february 2009 fires - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

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2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission—Interim Report 1 THE FEBRUARY 2009 FIRES This chapter presents a description of the main fires, their ignition and subsequent passage. The description of the Kilmore East fire is more extensive than others as it is the only fire that has been examined in depth during the public hearings, although there is still further evidence to be heard even in respect of that fire. The Commission will complete its examination of the Kilmore East fire and the other fires in the next block of hearings. Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 This chapter provides the context for matters discussed in the interim report. The description of the fires is sourced principally from the evidence of Mr Russell Rees, Chief Officer of the Country Fire Authority (CFA), Mr Ewan Waller, Chief Fire Officer of the Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE), together with evidence received from expert and lay witnesses. It focuses on fire ignition, its subsequent movement, and the broad fire agency response. Fire warnings are discussed in Chapter 4, although an outline of warnings for each fire is given below. Accounts of the fires vary, as material was provided to the Commission in a range of formats. The narrative is incomplete since the Commission has yet to hear from many of the operational personnel who directly managed the fires. They will be able to provide further information to the Commission, as will other lay witnesses during future hearings. Once this additional information is received, this narrative of the fires will be updated for the final report. A more comprehensive narrative of the Kilmore East fire is provided in the interim report, because the Commission has heard greater detail on this event. Where timings have been provided in statements and evidence, they are outlined below. For the purposes of this chapter only, timings have been described using the 24-hour clock. Witnesses have drawn these from their own recollections or records, or from details on the CFA Incident Management System (IMS) and the DSE FireWeb. 1 Where timings were not specified, they are absent. Fires are listed according to the time they were reported. Discussion on the fires is separated into: ■■ fire activity before 7 February ■■ ■■ fire activity on 7 February fire activity after 7 February. To put this narrative of the fires in perspective, a summary of weather information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is set out first, followed by observations on fire behaviour. The Weather 1.6 Weather conditions are invariably an important factor in all fire analysis, but a fuller understanding of the abnormal weather conditions leading up to, and on, 7 February is crucial to considering the subsequent impact of the fires. Weather information outlined below is largely drawn from the evidence of Dr Mark Williams, Regional Director of the Victorian Office of the BoM. 2 1.7 Central Australia has warmed 1.5–2.0°C over the last century. Over the last 12 years, Victoria has experienced warmer than average temperatures, and the last decade has been the warmest on record, breaking records going back 154 years. 3 During the same period, there has been very little above average rainfall and most of Victoria received either below or well below average rainfall. A large portion of southern Victoria, notably the area that surrounds Melbourne, received the lowest rainfall on record. The same has been experienced in western Victoria. 4 Dr Williams stated that: The whole of south-east Australia has suffered a severe and protracted drought which is without historical precedent. In central Victoria the 12-year rainfall totals have been around 10 to 20 % below the 1961–90 average and 10 to 13 % below the lowest on record for any 12-year period prior to 1997. 5 36 1.8 Across Victoria the average annual rainfall during this drought has been 555 mm, compared with a long-term average (1961–1990) of 653 mm. 6
The February 2009 Fires Figure 1.1: Victorian rainfall deciles January 2009 Mildura Hay Goulburn Ouyen Swan Hill Deniliquin Wagga Wagga Canberra Horsham Bendigo Echuca Benalla Albury Perisher Valley Cooma Omeo Casterton Ballarat Melbourne Bairnsdale Portland Warrnambool Geelong Wonthaggi Latrobe Valley Cape Otway Wilsons Prom. February 2009 Mildura Hay Goulburn Ouyen Swan Hill Deniliquin Wagga Wagga Canberra Horsham Bendigo Echuca Benalla Albury Perisher Valley Cooma Omeo Casterton Ballarat Melbourne Bairnsdale Portland Warrnambool Geelong Wonthaggi Latrobe Valley Cape Otway Wilsons Prom. Source: Exhibit 22 – Statement of M Williams, Annexure 1 (WIT.013.001.0012) at 0032 and 0034 7 Note: Rainfall deciles for January and February 2009 indicate that both months are ‘very much below average’. 8 Across central and eastern Victoria, there is a strong association between drought and the occurrence of major bushfires. 9 Lowest on record Very much below average Below average Average 37
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