the february 2009 fires - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

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2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission—Interim Report 1 THE FEBRUARY 2009 FIRES 1.12 As a result of these conditions, the BoM issued numerous forecasts and warnings of severe fire weather conditions in the week leading up to 7 February. The BoM also issued 205 public and fire weather publications (products) between 11:00 Friday 6 February and 05:00 Sunday 8 February. 22 Weather conditions on Saturday 7 February 1.13 On the evening of 6 February, a high-pressure system located in the Tasman Sea was directing very hot air over much of Victoria. A cold front was located across southern Western Australia extending to the south of the Bight, and was moving eastwards towards Victoria. 23 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 On 7 February temperatures rose quickly, and strong gale-force north-westerly winds began to reach ground level. 24 By 11:00, temperatures were near 40°C, with relative humidity already below 20 per cent in many parts of the state. Both forest and grass fire danger indices were well into the extreme category by 11:00 in western and central Victoria. Fire danger indices (FDI) were approaching Extreme in the rest of Victoria. 25 Many all-time site records were set in Victoria on 7 February, including Melbourne (154 years of records), where the temperature reached 46.4°C, far exceeding its previous all-time record of 45.6°C set on Black Friday (13 January 1939). It was also 3.2°C above the previous February record, which was set in 1983. 26 During the day, temperatures reached mid 40°C in many parts of the state and relative humidity was mostly below 10 per cent. North-westerly winds had either maintained or increased in strength during the morning. Mount Gellibrand Automatic Weather Station (AWS) was by then recording storm-force winds (90 kilometres per hour), while winds of 40–60 kilometres per hour were recorded over much of the state. Forest and Grass Fire Danger Indices were significantly into the Extreme category in nearly all of the state. 27 In the far south-west, a strong, gusty, south-westerly wind change entered the state at about 12:30, dropping temperatures and increasing relative humidity. At this stage no shower activity was associated with the change. 28 Many places had now reported, if not their hottest day on record, then their hottest for February. Wind gusts to 115 kilometres per hour were reported at Mount William and Mount Gellibrand, while gusts over 90 kilometres per hour were recorded at a number of other sites. 29 The strong and gusty south-westerly wind change moved eastwards at a rate of about 30 kilometres per hour. Fire danger ratings remained well into the Extreme category ahead of the wind change, and in central parts of the state these did not drop below Extreme until up to an hour after the change. 30 40 Source: AAP Image
The February 2009 Fires Figure 1.4: A post event analysis of the hourly surface positions of the wind change on 7 February 2009 Mildura Mildura Robinvale Murrayville Ouyen Walpeup Swan Hill Hill Hopetoun Kerang 12am Yarrawonga Albury Echuca Rutherglen Wodonga Hunters Corryong Hill Charlton Nhill Nhill Ap Donald Shepparton Wangaratta Shepperton Wangaratta Benalla Horsham Horsham Ap Bendigo Euroa Bright Mangalore Longerenong Falls Creek Redesdale Avoca Castlemaine Seymour Mt Hotham Mansfield Edenhope Edenhope Stawell VICI Mt Buller Omeo Yea Eildon Mt Hotham Gelantipy Ararat Kanagulk Mt William Kilmore Gap Ap Combienbar Ballarat Marysville Dargo Ballarat Casterton Melbourne Ap Cann River Westmere Coldstream Orbost Mallacoota Hamilton Mt Baw Baw Mt Nowa Nowa Laverton Melbourne Mt Moornape Hamilton Bairnsdale Mallacoota Sheoakes Mt Dandenong Bairnsdale Orbost Avalon Dandenong VICF Mortlake VACH East Geelong Frankston Warragul Sale Sale Geelong Ap Frankston Latrobe Traralgon Valley Warrnambool Portland Mt Gellibrand Portland Ap Colac South Channel Is Warrnambool Anglesea VICD 9pm Aireys Inlet Cowes Lorne Cerberus Port Fairy Yarram Wonthaggi Ap Cape Nelson Rhyll VICJ Apollo Bay Pound Creek Cape Otway Noon 3pm Wilsons Promontory 6pm Hogan Is Source: Exhibit 3 – Statement of M Williams, Annexure 1 (WIT.013.001.0012) at 0043 31 Note: Fixed and portable Automatic Weather Station (AWS) locations are indicated by place names. Stylised arrows indicate the north-westerly winds ahead of the wind change and south-westerly winds behind the wind change. 32 41
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Page 3 and 4: The February 2009 Fires Source: AAP
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