the february 2009 fires - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

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2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission—Interim Report 1 THE FEBRUARY 2009 FIRES Figure 1.2: Victorian annual mean temperature, 1910–2008, standardised against the 1961–1990 average 2 Australian Bureau of Meteorology 1 Mean T Anomaly (ºC) –1 –2 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Source: Exhibit 22 – Statement of M Williams, Annexure 1 (WIT.013.001.0012) at 0030 10 Note: The annually averaged mean temperature for Victoria has deviated from the 1961–1990 average. The solid line represents an 11 year moving average. 11 The grey areas indicate below average temperatures and the red areas indicate above average temperatures. 12 2008–09 bushfire season 1.9 During the three months from October to December 2008, most of Victoria received near-average to above average rainfall. 13 In contrast, the early part of 2009 was exceptionally dry, with below average to record low rainfall for January, particularly in central and western parts of Victoria. Melbourne had its second driest January on record. The dry weather continued during February 2009, with most of the western half of Victoria experiencing well below average rainfall. 14 In fact, there was ‘dipole activity’, with wet monsoonal activity in northern Australia and very hot, dry conditions further south. 15 1.10 1.11 After a relatively mild start to 2009, exceptional heatwave conditions developed across south-east Australia in late January. The last week of January witnessed one of the most severe, prolonged heatwaves in southeast Australia’s recorded history. 16 Dr Williams noted that ‘very, very hot air and very, very high temperatures [were] experienced in Victoria during that period’. 17 In southern South Australia, and much of central, southern and western Victoria, maximum temperatures widely reached their highest levels since at least 1939. 18 Melbourne experienced three consecutive days over 43°C — a new record. 19 The week leading up to 7 February was characterised by a series of high-pressure systems to the south of Victoria, which moved eastwards from the Great Australian Bight into the Tasman Sea. The air heated over land throughout this period, and this continued until 7 February. The set of charts in Figure 1.3, from 23:00 on 6 February to 05:00 on 8 February, demonstrate, in six-hourly intervals, the static high-pressure cell in the Tasman Sea on 7 February and the passage of the pressure trough across Victoria. 20 38
The February 2009 Fires Figure 1.3: The 6-hourly passage of the pressure trough across Australia on 7 February 2009 National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre 11:00am EDT Friday 6 February 2009 National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre 5:00am EDT Saturday 7 February 2009 TC “Freddy” 1004 L x 996 L x 1001 L x 997 1004 L x 998 5 Kt 990 Check latest cyclone warnings L x 998 L x 1000 L x 998 1020 1012 1004 H x 1012 1012 1004 35 Kt 1004 1012 L x 986 996 1011 H x 1012 1004 25 Kt 1020 L x 981 988 996 H x 1014 H x 1018 National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre 11:00am EDT Saturday 7 February 2009 National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre 5:00pm EDT Saturday 7 February 2009 5 Kt TC “Freddy” Check latest cyclone warnings 988 L x 1002 L x 1000 L x 1002 L x 1007 TC “Freddy” Check latest cyclone warnings 2 Kt 989 1004 L x 999 L x 998 L x 1005 1008 L x 1020 1012 1024 1016 1008 1000 998 1016 H x 30 Kt 1018 1004 996 L x 996 H x 1019 L x 976 988 L 35 Kt National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre 11:00pm EDT Saturday 7 February 2009 National Meteorological Oceanographic Centre 5:00am EDT Sunday 8 February 2009 2 Kt 1004 TC “Freddy” 989 Check latest cyclone warnings 999 L x L x 1000 6 Kt TC “Freddy” 1004 988 Check latest cyclone warnings L x L x 1000 1000 1012 L x 1012 1020 L x 1005 1020 1012 1012 1012 H x 1026 1004 996 988 H x 1020 Hx 1004 H x 996 1019 1027 988 35 Kt 45 Kt Map source: Exhibit 22 – Statement of M Williams, Annexure 1 (WIT.013.001.0012) at 0042 21 39
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