Chapter 4 - Warnings - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

More documents

Recommendations

Info

2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission—Interim Report 4 WARNINGS 4.159 Ms Karen Ward of Mudgegonga was aware of the weather forecast and predictions. She heard a message on ABC Radio in the evening, which was helpful because ‘it let us know that it was going to be us that was directly affected’. Ms Ward also sought more information about warnings and suggested it would be useful if fire was rated so it was clear if the approaching fire is going to be extreme. 209 4.160 Mr John Williams of Yarra Glen noted that on Friday ‘the tempo of the warnings certainly increased’ and recalled seeing the warning given by the Premier. 210 He took this as a trigger to commence preparations to defend the winery. He said, however, that the warnings he heard on ABC Radio were difficult to understand: There were warnings issued from time to time in a very sort of performance type language, ‘a warning is issued to the people of such and such that you may be about to endure an ember attack,’ this sort of language, and I had to concentrate very carefully on each one of these messages just to see to whom it did apply. If I missed the beginning of the statement, the rest of it was of no consequence whatsoever. These messages went on, very lengthy, using up a lot of valuable time and I kept mumbling to myself, ‘get on with it, give a short, pithy messages that are up to date.’ They were out of date. I can see more going on here than what’s being told over the radio. 211 4.161 He emphasised the need for short messages and suggested the following model: ‘A message for the people of Timbuktu. A message is issued at 1:35pm. You may be enduring an ember attack within the next hour. This is a message for Timbuktu timed at 1:35pm’, and then move onto the next one. 212 4.162 Ms Jillian Kane of Bendigo, gave evidence on the death of her disabled brother in Long Gully. She noted that given his vulnerability he, and those like him, require ‘a more effective warning system’ and advance notice to be able to arrange to relocate. 213 conclusions on the construction and content of BUSHFIRE warnings 4.163 Changes should be made to the content of bushfire warnings. Many of the warnings used by the fire agencies on 7 February were deficient in the following respects: ■■ many warnings did not indicate the likely severity of the fire; this is a significant shortcoming ■■ the warnings rarely identified the window of time during which the fire was predicted to reach certain towns or communities; this information is vital to the community ■■ some warnings were imprecise in their description of the location of a particular fire or the direction in which the fire was spreading; again, this information is important to those preparing to meet the threat ■■ the advice in many warnings was lengthy and confusing, sometimes even contradictory; it was difficult to identify the important information ■■ the terminology used in some warnings was vague and euphemistic; it did not serve to grab the audience’s attention. 4.164 On the particular language to be used in bushfire warnings, as Mr Rees agrees, terms like ‘going’ and ‘out of control’ — though they have meaning to fire specialists — fail to convey sufficient meaning to the public. 214 In his evidence, Mr Lawson agreed that the use of a term such as ‘extremely dangerous bushfire’ would be in keeping with the desire to use plain language. 215 Mr Pearce agreed that using the term ‘severe’ would improve communication about the severity of fires. 216 Terms which convey clearly the severity and intensity of bushfires should be used. 142
Warnings RECOMMENDATION 4.2 The State ensure that the content of bushfire warnings issued in Victoria reflects the principles set out in the Commonwealth policy paper Emergency Warnings — Choosing Your Words (2008). In particular, all bushfire warnings issued in Victoria must use clear language, avoid euphemisms, and contain explicit information in relation to: ■■ ■■ the severity, location, predicted direction and likely time of impact of bushfires on specific communities and locations; and the predicted severity of impact of the bushfire and whether a specific fire poses a threat to human life. TOWARDS A LONGER TERM APPROACH — A NEW CATEGORISATION SYSTEM 4.165 A number of witnesses who appeared before the Commission said that it may be desirable to develop a clearer means of communicating the severity of a bushfire to the public. Some witnesses proposed drawing on the ‘category one, category two’ terminology used in cyclone warnings. For example, Mr P Brown suggested an improved system of fire danger rating: … you could have a total fire ban season and you could train people up on the type of equipment that can be used on any given day, and then what happens is you rate everyday during the fire season from a 1 through to a 5. You can have it such that, as you move through it, the response from the fire authority can go from being at a 1, where the fire can be contained within a given time and so the community can have confidence that it is actually within a scale that the fire authorities can control, right through to a 5, where straightaway we know that, when the fire occurs, unless it is under control within the first ten minutes to a quarter of an hour, it’s now out of control … the community needs to know that. 217 4.166 Similarly, Mr Ananiev suggested, ‘All we are looking for is a category 1, 2, 3, or 5, and maybe a colour, red, yellow, green, to mix in with it’. When asked about use of the terminology ‘extremely dangerous’, he said ‘For me it would be category 1. One red’. 218 4.167 Ms Glassford said she found the information on ABC Radio confusing: I would have probably personally preferred to have heard that the fire was in a particular location and the direction it was heading rather than hearing about what towns were under threat. I think that probably reflects the fact that I’m not really close to a particular town … I know a lot of people who were leaving late that day. I think also just knowing where it was and the direction it was heading may have aided them in choosing the direction to escape the fire. 219 4.168 Dr Harvey agreed: You know you can’t be calling it a very extreme fire day, you can’t use that sort of language, it just doesn’t mean a thing. Numbers mean things to people. 220 4.169 Professor Handmer drew comparisons with other warning systems used for natural disasters. He explained that in relation to cyclones, there is a categorisation system ranging, ‘from 1 or 2, very low impact, to 5, extreme cyclone’. He explained further the benefits of cyclone warnings, while noting that cyclones are easier than bushfires to ‘detect, track and issue warnings for’. 221 4.170 There are important differences between floods, cyclones and fires, and different challenges are raised in relation to warning systems for each. However, a more readily understood ‘severity scale’ to be used when grading bushfires would assist the community in responding to bushfire warnings. 143
Page 1 and 2: WARNINGS 4
Page 3 and 4: Warnings 4.6 4.7 The content of war
Page 5 and 6: Warnings 4.23 4.24 The report conta
Page 7 and 8: Warnings 4.38 4.39 4.40 There is a
Page 9 and 10: Warnings 4.51 Though this 2005 pape
Page 11 and 12: Warnings 4.70 The introduction of C
Page 13 and 14: Warnings 4.80 Emergency messages ar
Page 15 and 16: Warnings 4.92 However, it is also c
Page 17 and 18: Warnings ■■ Information was pub
Page 19 and 20: Warnings In summary, for many of th
Page 21 and 22: Warnings 4.132 Mr John O’Neill of
Page 23: Warnings I cannot understand how if
Page 27 and 28: Warnings 4.180 The second stage, th
Page 29 and 30: Warnings 4.199 The South Australian
Page 31 and 32: Warnings 274 4.213 The CFA’s oppo
Page 33 and 34: Warnings 4.233 Sirens are one of a
Page 35 and 36: Warnings 4.250 The Commission is en

Chapter 4 - Warnings - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?