SACOG Conformity Determination

Today, the region has evolved in ways unforeseen even ten years ago. The population, 2.1
million in 2005, has spread out to bring Elk Grove, Roseville, Rocklin, and Folsom into the urban
area. Rancho Cordova has emerged as a second major job center rivaling downtown Sacramento,
and Roseville is not far behind. Two-worker households have become the norm, with extensive
commuting from one community to another. Low-density suburban patterns mean people travel
overwhelmingly by automobile: 47 percent of trips drive alone, 46 percent of trips go by auto with
two or more occupants, 6 percent are bicycle or walk trips, and 1 percent of trips are by transit
(with transit use reaching 3 percent into downtown Sacramento during commute hours).
The radial transportation system no longer serves the region's needs well. The U.S. 50 freeway
serves as the region's core corridor, carrying a full load of traffic in both directions both morning
and afternoon, and increasingly at midday as well. Intermittent congestion is now widespread, since
the spare capacity once built into the system has been consumed by growth, with little new capacity
added since 1980.
Looking forward to 2027, the State forecasts the region's population to reach 2.9 million, a 37
percent increase. With that comes a 53 percent increase in travel -- unless land development
proceeds differently than it has in the past. The region by 2027 will have three major job centers:
downtown Sacramento/West Sacramento, Rancho Cordova/Folsom, and Roseville/Rocklin. The
urban edge will expand to encompass El Dorado Hills and Lincoln, as well as areas east and west
of Elk Grove, south of Rancho Cordova, west of Roseville, Southport in West Sacramento, North
Natomas, and perhaps South Sutter County. Present trends and zoning indicate that residential areas
and office/industrial areas will continue to develop separately. More than a million people will live
on each side of the American River.
Looking to this future, the region needs a new transportation vision and plan. Many
expectations during the past 25 years have not worked out. Sprawl around the edges continues
to out-pace infill into existing communities, and businesses increasingly prefer suburban locations.
Even though gasoline prices are at an all-time high, the total amount of driving has more than
doubled since 1980. Even so, total smog emissions from motor vehicles are now half what they
were in 1980, because technology has reduced auto emissions by 98 percent from 1980 models.
Lack of road building and the resulting congestion have not encouraged many people to take transit
instead of driving, even at the extreme congestion levels seen in big cities like Los Angeles.
Instead, drivers move onto neighborhood streets, seeking to avoid heavy traffic. A 1999
Sacramento Regional Transit survey showed that half of those who commute on transit, and threequarters
of those who ride transit for other reasons, do not have access to an auto. Furthermore,
those percentages rose through the 1990s, so transit increasingly serves those who cannot otherwise
choose to drive, despite a focus on luring drivers out of their autos. Shipping of goods by truck has
ballooned, instead of shifting to railroads, with trucks serving as rolling warehouses feeding just-intime
manufacturing, and stores with computerized inventories.
Sacramento needs a realistic and creative new plan to manage recent trends heading into the
future. The region does not want continuing suburban sprawl for a million new residents. Greater
congestion, more compact development, an aging population, clean air goals, and energy
conservation all point to a need to improve and expand transit service. The Sacramento region, with
ideal climate and terrain, could see more travel by bicycling and walking, now discouraged in some
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