SACOG Conformity Determination

3. GROWTH AND CHANGE
HOW MUCH GROWTH CAN THE SACRAMENTO REGION EXPECT?
Growth continues to be the big story in the region. A recent Central Valley Survey, conducted
by the Public Policy Institute of California and the Great Valley Center, found that 43 percent of
those surveyed in the Sacramento Region rated growth and development as a big problem, and
56 percent rated traffic congestion as a big problem. Mark Baldassare, Survey Director of the
Public Policy Institute, called the results "stunning," saying that "It's the pace of change and also
the type of change that's occurring in the outlying regions of Sacramento right now. The changes
are very noticeable and troubling to people." 6
The Sacramento region's economy is healthy and yet changing in fundamental ways. With the
nearby Bay Area running out of land for development, the region has become attractive to coastal
residents, new immigrants, employers and developers because of its lower cost of housing and its
job opportunities. The number of jobs in electronics manufacturing, information services, health
care, agriculture, food processing and tourism -- industries that are important to the economic
transformation -- is rapidly approaching that provided by government, which has long been a
cornerstone of the region's economy. These new jobs are also replacing the military- related jobs
that have left the region due to military base closures. Within the next few years, these industries
will likely, for the first time, employ more of the region's residents than the public sector, and will
bring with them the potential for faster economic growth but also the potential for more volatility in
the local economy. 7
Population in the region is expected to grow by 788,000 people, an increase of about 37
percent, from 2.15 million in 2005 to 2.94 million in 2027. Table 1 shows population, housing,
and employment projections for the six counties of the region (excluding the Tahoe Basin). Table 2
highlights the areas (regional analysis districts, which are roughly equivalent to communities)
expected to experience the largest absolute growth in population, housing and employment in the
region between 2005 and 2027.
Despite encouragement of infill development, most new housing continues to be located in
areas beyond existing urban development. Ninety percent of new housing is expected to locate at
or beyond today's urban edge, on what are referred to as "greenfields." Booming areas for
population and housing growth include Rancho Cordova, El Dorado Hills, South Sacramento
County, North Natomas, West Sacramento, and in Roseville, Rocklin, and Lincoln.
Jobs are spreading out around the region. Forty percent of job growth between 2000 and
2025 comes in office and manufacturing jobs in suburban areas (Rancho Cordova, Roseville,
North Natomas, Folsom, Rocklin, Elk Grove, Galt, Woodland, Davis, and El Dorado Hills). Only
10 percent of total job growth is expected to locate in downtown Sacramento. In total, employment
in expected to grow by about 400,000, a 39 percent increase.
6 Sacramento Bee, “Growth tops list of worries in the Valley,” April 25, 2002.
7 Valley Vision, California State University Sacramento, and SACOG, Sacramento Region Quality-of-Life Index 2000.
January 2002.
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