SACOG Conformity Determination

Sacramento expects to attain federal clean air standards by about 2013. New, harder-to-meet
federal standards (the 8-hour standards) have been approved effective June 2005. The region is
now developing an interim Rate-of-Progress State Implementation Plan for Air Quality (ROP SIP)
that will allow air quality conformity analysis and a finding for this plan. A new, full SIP for the
region will be ready by mid-2007. The Yuba/Sutter air basin is now considered to be in attainment
(except for the Sutter Buttes, which is considered a separate air basin).
Late-model autos are 50 times less polluting than 20-year old models (and new hybrid fuel autos
are better yet), so as older cars are retired to the junkyard, our air will get cleaner. A growing
population slows down progress on air quality, by adding to VMT. Eventually, community design
changes may lead to changes in travel patterns and lower VMT, but not in the short term. Other
ways to cut pollution may be needed in the near term.
FROM RESEARCH ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF TRANSPORTATION
PLANS, SACOG HAS LEARNED THAT:
Natural environmental impacts would not be substantially greater from the projects in the
plans, just different, and can be offset or mitigated for the most part. Impacts from
development far outweigh those from the transportation accompanying it. For example, the projects
in the MTP 2025 would lead to higher noise levels at 24 locations and lower noise levels at five,
but overall road noise would increase anyway from a 58 percent increase in VMT region-wide.
New bridges would affect riparian habitat along the rivers they cross, but so would increased traffic
on existing bridges. Road projects nowadays usually skirt around sensitive sites, and routinely
include mitigation where that is not feasible.
Continuation of recent development trends would place 90 percent of new growth at the
urban edge and consume at least another 100,000 acres for sprawl growth by 2025. Both the
MTP 2025 and the 2006 MTP try to encourage different development patterns. Studies in
Portland, Oregon, a region that has tried hard to control sprawl development, show that jobs move
to the urban edge faster if access to the central business district is choked off by congestion. The
2006 MTP puts investment in a community design program primarily within the existing urban
area. Community design programs show promising results in other cities. SACOG expects some
success in reining in urban sprawl, but still expects at least 80 percent of growth to go around the
urban edge.
Community impacts can be significant, and impacts from a 58 percent increase in VMT
region-wide would be substantial in any case. Rail lines and wider roads can divide communities,
but also link those communities to jobs and activities. Widened roads carrying heavy traffic make
impacts on the surrounding community and adjacent properties, but so does traffic cutting through
neighborhoods to dodge congestion on an inadequate main road. The more sprawl development is
reined in, the more traffic will need to use existing roads.
The 2006 MTP offers minimal benefits for either lower-income communities or more affluent
ones. Bus service and community circulator buses provide the most benefit in lower income areas.
Community circulator buses could serve local trips to grocery stores, medical facilities, and other
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