SACOG Conformity Determination

seek more local funding to take care of the road rehabilitation need, in small counties with limited
tax bases.
Another critical funding squeeze effectively puts a cap on transit service in Sacramento
County. Sacramento Regional Transit (RT) forecasts a need for more than $3 billion to continue
operating the bus and light rail system it has now through 2027. Fare revenues will provide only 30
percent of this amount, and another 30 percent currently comes from Sacramento County's 1/2
percent sales tax for transportation (one-third of which supports RT operations). Even with the
renewal of Measure A at 1/2 percent through 2039, RT may only be able to afford to build and
operate two light rail extensions and expand its bus service by about 50 percent by 2027. This falls
far short of RT's 20-Year Vision in the MTP 2025, under which RT's 23-year operating cost would
rise to nearly $5 billion. The region again confronts a difficult choice: if it wants more transit
service in urban Sacramento, voters must agree to increase the sales tax by another 1/4 percent,
with all of that going to transit, or find about $40 million per year from some other source. The
2006 MTP assumes that the voters who approved a continuation of the 1/2 percent sales tax for
transportation in Sacramento County in 2004 will agree to an additional 1/4 percent increase by
2016.
This discussion points out an important trend: looking ahead to 2027, sales taxes become the
key source of transportation funding, instead of gasoline taxes. Sales tax revenues increase with
both economic growth and inflation. On the other hand, gasoline taxes are pegged in cents per
gallon, and will inevitably decline, as autos generally become more fuel efficient, and hybrid and
alternate fuel cars become more common. In urban counties at least, voters have historically proven
willing to approve sales taxes for transportation, while the Legislature has proven unwilling, for at
least the past thirty years, to raise the local share of gas taxes to keep up with road maintenance and
rehabilitation costs. Sales taxes already play a leading role in supporting the region's two most
critical needs, covering more than half the cost of transit operations in this region, and rivaling the
gas tax as a funding source for road maintenance.
WHO DECIDES HOW TO SPEND THE $27.5 BILLION?
Of the $27.5 billion, roughly 18 percent comes to the region, 21 percent belongs to Caltrans,
and the remaining 61 percent is available to local agencies (counties, cities, and transit
districts). Federal law (both TEA-21 in 2002 and now SAFETEA-LU) requires urban
transportation plans to be financially constrained, which limited what the MTP 2025 could include
to revenues reasonably expected to be available. The 2006 MTP again commits the projected
revenues to a proposed list of projects, essentially the same list as in the MTP 2025 except for
projects completed during the years 2002-2006.
Most regional funds come to SACOG, but a portion goes to two other regional agencies: Placer
County Transportation Planning Agency and El Dorado County Transportation Commission. Table
7 shows revenues by year and Table 8 estimates how the region would use the funds.
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