Global Tuberculosis Control 2010 - Florida Department of Health

Africa The Americas Eastern Mediterranean
60
50
40
10
8
6
40
30
Rate per 100 000 population
30
20
10
0
15
20
4
10
2
0
0
Europe South-East Asia Western Pacific
40
60
10
5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
50
40
30
20
10
0
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
In most of the HBCs, notifications have been getting
closer to estimated incidence in recent years, notably in
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Indonesia,
Pakistan, South Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania
().
Prevalence rates are falling in all six WHO regions (
). The most impressive progress is in the Region
of the Americas, where the Stop TB Partnership’s target
of halving the 1990 prevalence rate has been achieved.
Projections suggest that the Western Pacific and Eastern
Mediterranean regions are on track to achieve the target
by 2015, and the European Region could get close. On
current projections, the African and South-East Asian
regions will not achieve the target.
Mortality rates (excluding TB deaths among HIVpositive
people) are falling in all six WHO regions. The
best progress towards the 2015 target of halving the
1990 mortality rate is in the Region of the Americas and
the Western Pacific Region, both of which appear to have
achieved the target already. The Eastern Mediterranean,
European and South-East Asia regions are close to reaching
the target, and could do so before 2015. In the African
Region, achieving the target appears out-of-reach,
following a major increase in TB incidence and mortality
rates associated with the HIV epidemic throughout the
1990s and up to around 2004.
Among the 22 HBCs, mortality rates appear to be
falling with the possible exception of Afghanistan and
Uganda ( ). Even allowing for uncertainty in
these estimates, four countries reached the target of
halving the 1990 mortality rate by 2009 (Brazil, Cambodia,
China and the United Republic of Tanzania), and
six additional countries (India, Indonesia, Kenya, Myanmar,
Pakistan and the Russian Federation) have a good
chance of doing so by 2015. In the other HBCs, current
forecasts suggest that the target may not be achieved.
The reductions in mortality associated with progress
to date in implementing the DOTS strategy (1995–2006)
and its successor, the Stop TB Strategy (launched in
2006) have saved millions of lives since 1995, and continued
implementation could save millions more in the
years up to 2015 ( ). 1 From 1995 to 2009, 49
1
These results are based on the following manuscript: Glaziou P et
al. Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving
the 2015 global target for reductions in tuberculosis mortality
(submitted for publication in May 2010).