How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions Comparing estimated and actual group sizes names other groups estimated percentage of network, e β 0.01% 0.1% 1% Michael Robert David James Jennifer Anthony Christopher Christina Stephanie Kimberly Nicole Jacqueline estimated percentage of network, e β 0.01% 0.1% 1% Accident Homicide Suicide Jaycee Dialysis Gun AIDS Adopted Gave birth Diabetic Amerind Widow(er) Postal Twin Business Prison Pilot 0.01% 0.1% 1% percent of U.S. population 0.01% 0.1% 1% percent of U.S. population Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions Comparing estimated and actual group sizes ◮ Names ◮ Rare names (Stephanie, Nicole, etc.) fit their population frequencies ◮ Common names (Michael, Robert, etc.) are underrepresented in the friendship network ◮ Other groups ◮ Rare groups (homicide, accident, etc.) are over-recalled ◮ Common groups (new mothers, diabetics, etc.) are under-recalled ◮ Explanations ◮ Difficulty recalling all the Michaels you know ◮ Salience of rare events in memory ◮ Recall Nicole and Anthony from the demo! Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
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How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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