How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next Confidence building 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions ◮ Posterior predictive checking: compare data to simulated replications from the model ◮ Model fit is good, not perfect ◮ Consistent patterns with names compared to other groups ◮ Many fewer 9’s and more 10’s in data than predicted by the model ◮ Checking parameter estimates under fake-data simulation Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next Confidence building 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions ◮ Posterior predictive checking: compare data to simulated replications from the model ◮ Model fit is good, not perfect ◮ Consistent patterns with names compared to other groups ◮ Many fewer 9’s and more 10’s in data than predicted by the model ◮ Checking parameter estimates under fake-data simulation Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
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Overview Social and political polar
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How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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