How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions Bayesian data analysis ◮ Model-building motivated by failures of simpler models ◮ Checking model by comparing data to predictive replications ◮ Checking computer program by checking inferences from fake data ◮ Computation using automated Metropolis algorithm ◮ Inferences summarized graphically . . . Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions Regression of log(gregariousness): as a table Coefficient Estimate (s.e.) female −0.11 (0.03) nonwhite 0.06 (0.04) age < 30 −0.02 (0.04) age > 65 −0.14 (0.05) married 0.04 (0.05) college educated 0.11 (0.03) employed 0.13 (0.04) income < $20, 000 −0.18 (0.05) income > $80, 000 0.18 (0.05) Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
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How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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