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How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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Overview<br />

Social and political polarization<br />

Background: how <strong>many</strong> people <strong>do</strong> <strong>you</strong> know?<br />

Learning from “<strong>How</strong> <strong>many</strong> X’s <strong>do</strong> <strong>you</strong> know” <strong>surveys</strong><br />

Next<br />

3 models<br />

Fitting our model<br />

Results: how <strong>many</strong> people <strong>do</strong> <strong>you</strong> know?<br />

Results: group sizes and overdispersions<br />

Confidence building and model extensions<br />

Bayesian inference<br />

◮ Negative-binomial data model allowing overdispersion<br />

◮ Hierarchical models for gregariousness, group-size, and<br />

overdispersion parameters<br />

◮ 1370 + 32 + 32 + 4 parameters to estimate<br />

◮ Computation using the Gibbs/Metropolis sampler<br />

◮ Adaptive (self-tuning) algorithm implemented using Jouni<br />

Kerman’s Umacs function in R<br />

Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng<br />

Studying polarization using <strong>surveys</strong>

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