How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions Comparing estimated and actual group sizes ◮ Names ◮ Rare names (Stephanie, Nicole, etc.) fit their population frequencies ◮ Common names (Michael, Robert, etc.) are underrepresented in the friendship network ◮ Other groups ◮ Rare groups (homicide, accident, etc.) are over-recalled ◮ Common groups (new mothers, diabetics, etc.) are under-recalled ◮ Explanations ◮ Difficulty recalling all the Michaels you know ◮ Salience of rare events in memory ◮ Recall Nicole and Anthony from the demo! Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
Overview Social and political polarization Background: how many people do you know? Learning from “How many X’s do you know” surveys Next Correlations in the residuals r ik = √ y ik − √ â i ˆb k negative experience Prison Homicide Homeless Rape Suicide Auto Accident 3 models Fitting our model Results: how many people do you know? Results: group sizes and overdispersions Confidence building and model extensions male names James Anthony Robert David Adoption New Birth Business Twin Pilot Dialysis Diabetic Widow(er) Postal Worker Gun Dealer Jaycees Amer. Indians AIDS HIV positive female names Christina Jacqueline Jennifer Kimberly Stephanie Nicole Michael Christopher 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 −0.2 Gelman, DiPrete, Salganik, Teitler, Zheng Studying polarization using surveys
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How many X's do you know'' surveys - Columbia University

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