Trade Show Executive

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TRENDING & SPENDING SPONSORED BY Sector Performance BEST PERFORMING SECTORS • Apparel • Automotive • Business Services • Hospitality MIXED PERFORMANCE • Communications • Food • Manufacturing SECTORS UNDER PRESSURE • Construction • Home Furnishings • Technology • Transportation • Security • Medical • Retail • Government • Housing Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence decreased in January for the third month in a row, dropping (8.1) points to 58.6, and erasing all the gains made in 2012, according to The Conference Board. Core Inflation, which omits volatile food and energy prices, remained tame, rising 1.6% in January. Today’s infl ation rates are less than half the long-term average of 3.8%. Corporate Earnings for the S&P 500 companies are looking better, dispelling fears of an ugly Q4 earnings season. Just over 69% have reported earnings above estimates, and the blended average growth forecast is 6.9% growth for Q4, led by tech companies and consumer staples. Gross Domestic Product dropped unexpectedly and dramatically by three percentage points to (0.1)% in Q4 of 2012, from 3.1% in Q3. It was the fi rst quarterly decline since the Great Recession. Housing Starts for single-family homes took a giant step backwards in January, dropping (8.5)% after rising 8.1% to 616,000 units in December. However, housing starts tend to be volatile in the winter months due to weather. Industrial Production at factories, mines and utilities edged downwards (0.1)% in January after weak growth of 0.4% in December. Interest Rates (short term) remained near 0% in January, maintaining the ultra-low level set in December 2008. The Fed repeated its vow to keep rates near zero until mid-2015. Job Growth clocked in at 157,000 in January [total nonfarm payroll], a marginal increase from December’s 155,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Leading Economic Index, a weighted gauge of 10 economic indicators that helps predict the future direction of the economy, rose 0.2% in January, the second month in a row for optimism. Housing, which has long been a drag, has turned into a positive for growth. Manufacturing in January moved off its low point of 49.5% for 2012. The PMI registered 53.1% in January, indicating expansion for the second consecutive month. Retail Sales for January disappointed, growing only 0.1% compared to a healthy 0.5% in December. The Unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% as more people entered the labor force. The rate of 7.8% had been at or near that percentage since September 2012. 18 March 2013 | Trade Show Executive Continued from page 17 momentum in the U.S. One is the housing revival we have already written about in past columns and this trend is expected to continue into 2013 with home prices gaining steam in 88% of U.S. cities during the Fourth Quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). “Home sales are on a sustained uptrend,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. The other trend is in energy. “We all know about the use of horizontal drilling and fracking that has exploded in certain U.S. regions where shale deposits are located,” said Chow. “What you may not know is that the two products from the drilling — crude oil and natural gas — are playing a vital role in increasing jobs and bringing some jobs back to the U.S.” Last November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the U.S. will become the world's top oil producer probably by 2020. This is mainly due to the explosion of oil extracted in “shale” regions such as North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford. The IEA sees U.S. production at 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 growing to 11.1 million in 2020. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the leading producer currently, will produce 10.9 million bpd in 2015 but dip to 10.6 million by 2020. “If this happens, it will be dramatic,” said Chow. Historically, U.S. refineries have relied on foreign crude to make refined products because it was more prevalent and cheaper. “This is no longer the case with the discoveries of U.S. shale deposits,” said Chow. “In fact, domestic shale crude is so overflowing that refineries and oil drillers are scrambling to find somewhere to store it because of our inadequate oil transport system.” He pointed out that industries near the extraction sites or refineries are able to benefit from the cheaper oil, but those in regions such as the East and West Coast have much higher gas prices in part due to no pipelines or rail available across regions. This is an example of the lack of government investment and planning in infrastructure over the decades. Since U.S. refineries are now more efficient than their foreign rivals, so that U.S. refined products are increasingly more competitive globally. For 2012, fuel oil exports climbed 14% to $60.2 billion, and exports of other petroleum products rose 4% to $57 billion. This translates into high paying jobs. Global demand for refined products is estimated to grow 33% over the next two decades, according to Rodrigo Favela, executive director for refining, planning and evaluation at Hart Energy. The drilling process itself is a long-term economic driver for thousands of new U.S. jobs as well as investment in steel and technologically advanced equipment, said Chow. Also, foreign companies are expanding investment in U.S. oil companies to learn about the new drilling technologies, which will create even more jobs. New energy developments may have far-reaching potential to transform the U.S. economy. The building of pipelines by itself could jumpstart the recovery, but it has unfortunately become a political football in D.C. Besides the proposed Keystone pipeline holdup, the EPA is attempting to propose more regulations on fracking citing danger to the water supply. Frank Chow, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR TSE MEDIA GROUP Furthermore, hydraulic fracking has unlocked huge reservoirs of natural gas causing its price to plummet in the past few years. “This trend may not help drilling companies, but it has been a boon to the broad U.S. industry and manufac-
SPONSORED BY turing sector as a cheap energy source and chemical feedstock,” Chow pointed out. “Even electric generating plants are switching to natural gas to take advantage of the low prices. That, with other factors like rising foreign wages, is spurring a return of some manufacturing back to the U.S.,” he said. Dow Chemical and Royal Dutch Shell are building chemical plants in the U.S. while Nucor plans to make more steel here using natural gas. Potash Corp. is reopening an ammonia plant closed in 2003. “We’re at a very interesting inflection point in the U.S. trade balance," said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica. In addition to the steel and chemical industries, cheap U.S. oil and natural gas will benefit a variety of other energy-intensive sectors, Dye added. Energy Will Transform the U.S. Economy These new energy developments may have far-reaching potential to transform the U.S. economy. “The building of pipelines by itself could jumpstart the recovery, but it has unfortunately become a political football in Washington, DC,” Chow said. “Besides the proposed Keystone pipeline holdup, the EPA is attempting to propose more regulations on fracking, citing danger to the water supply,” he said. This potentially could be a burgeoning opportunity for future trade shows serving that sector because of the varied international, government, environmental, and industrial sectors involved. Which shows are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries? There are the Gold 100 shows serving the Building & Construction sectors such as CONEXPO-CON/ AGG and World of Concrete; others focused on Industrial/Heavy Machinery such as POWER-Gen International; those geared to Raw Materials & Science such as WEFTEC /The Water Environment Federation Technical Exhibition & Conference; plus a host of smaller specialized shows and conferences, some of which will be launches. Trade show organizers in other sectors aren’t hitting the panic button. Plenty of firm fundamentals are likely to offset even the budget sequestration as we move through 2013. But a waitand-see attitude prevails. TSE THE HEALTH TEST: SEE HOW A LITTLE SUN CAN CURE THE COMMON MEETING. Executive Conference Center Lecture Hall Biltmore Fashion Park When you choose the Phoenix Convention Center for your medical event, you get a location close to more than 3,000 downtown hotel rooms, countless dining and entertainment options, the Arizona Biomedical Collaborative and Phoenix Biomedical Campus, plus a healthy outdoor lifestyle. But don’t take our word for it. Put us to the test and explore everything Phoenix has to offer today. PHOENIXCONVENTIONCENTER.COM | 800-282-4842 | Join the Discussion on TSE's Facebook Page! Visit Trade Show Executive's NEW Facebook page to fi nd everything you need from breaking news and signifi cant industry developments to event photos. It's all waiting for you at www.facebook.com/TradeShowExecutive www.TradeShowExecutive.com | March 2013 19
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