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154 PROPOSAL TO REVISE ENERGY EFFICIENCY REQUIREMENTS OF THE BUILDING CODE OF AUSTRALIA FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS that will accompany an emissions trading scheme, maximum demand relative to total consumption will continue to deteriorate somewhat between now and 2020. Peak demand from the commercial sector coincides with afternoon cooling requirements of commercial premises on hot days. This peak tends to be somewhat earlier than the overall evening peak generated by residential cooling requirements. The impact on avoided costs of suppliers will depend on both the magnitude and timing of the reductions in energy consumption relative to the base case. Savings are cumulative and will start from relatively low levels as the share of commercial electricity consumption accounted for by new commercial property stock is currently around only 1 per cent in the first few years of the new BCA. It is from this small but growing share and the extension of the provisions to buildings being renovated and refurbished, that any code-generated avoided costs to suppliers will arise. Estimates of any impact of the BCA change measures on generation or transportation of energy need to be made in the light of forecast capacity growth directed at managing expected consumption growth, peak demand growth and variability. Impacts on suppliers will be twofold — the effect on total consumption and the effect on maximum demand. Ideally, potential BCA impacts would reflect the change in expected share of peak and nonpeak load demand attributable to that part of the energy consuming sector impacted by the BCA changes — in this case the new commercial building sector. This breakdown is not available. The package of measures that would be implemented under the BCA changes may have a small impact on the relationship between maximum demand and total consumption through the change in the load profile of the new and renovated commercial buildings sector. While the cumulative impact on total consumption has been estimated, the effect on maximum demand, brought about through these load profile changes, has not. The impact on the electricity component of the energy sector (and indirectly on the gas sector through changes in gas fired power stations and gas pipe networks delivering to generators) of the BCA-driven electricity savings will depend on the following: • any avoided operating costs achieved through ‘load smoothing’ because of the reduction in peak demands relative to other demands compared to their BAU levels; • any reduction or delay in augmentation of generating, transmission or distribution network capacity because of this effect; www.TheCIE.com.au
PROPOSAL TO REVISE ENERGY EFFICIENCY REQUIREMENTS OF THE BUILDING CODE OF AUSTRALIA FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS 155 • any reduction in operating costs due to BCA induced reduction in total consumption; • any reduction or delay in capacity due to this effect; and • any reduction in hedging or other costs due to BCA induced changes in the load profile. These effects will take place in an environment in which the CPRS, renewable energy targets and potential climate change will be driving large scale investment in both energy generation and distribution investment, as discussion below illustrates. Potential effects on the generation sector Peak load effects on the capital costs of the electricity sector stem from the need to have back up capacity and/or additional interconnection network capacity to supply extreme demand levels that typically prevail for less than 1 per cent of the year. Systems which operate with a typical load factor of 60 per cent, involving peak, intermediate and base loads may have base load factors as high as 90 per cent and peak load plant with load factors of 10 per cent or lower. Reserve capacity set as a buffer over and above estimated maximum demand can amount to 10 per cent or more of the total capacity. Average peak loads are typically at least 50 per cent above average loads. (Critical peaks on extreme (hot) days can be much higher than this.) Residential use currently contributes disproportionately to peak demand, and the need for peak load capacity, particularly through the impact of summer loads driven by home air conditioning, whose penetration is increasing. The commercial sector, in contrast, while contributing to mid afternoon strength of demand, tends to be out of phase with the overall late afternoon – early evening peak coinciding with the switch on of residential cooling (or heating). While accounting for 28 per cent of total consumption, residential use could more reasonably be considered to underpin 35 per cent of maximum demand — when peak influences are added to the commercial, industrial and mining demands. 39 Any 39 In this review no direct estimate has been obtained as to the share of peak demand attributable to the residential sector. However, if, in the extreme case residential demand is responsible for most of the 50 per cent difference between peak loads and average load, then, rather than approximating households ‘capacity share’ on the basis of their share of total consumption driving 28 per cent of the capacity needs Australia- wide, this capacity share is better approximated as 35 per cent. (This assumes 28 per cent of the average load with a weight of .67 and 50 per cent of the peak load with a weight of .33, giving 0.35). Data for the regulated residential sector www.TheCIE.com.au
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