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156 PROPOSAL TO REVISE ENERGY EFFICIENCY REQUIREMENTS OF THE BUILDING CODE OF AUSTRALIA FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS
significant reduction over time in peak demand growth rates relative to
total consumption growth would have the effect of supporting a given level
of total consumption at lower cost of supply and at lower price to
consumers than otherwise. The BCA measures proposed for commercial
buildings will help to reduce maximum demand, but marginally — because
of the nature of the load profile they are impacting.
The commercial sector can be expected to contribute somewhat less to
maximum demand than its share in total consumption indicates. Any
estimated percentage change in commercial total consumption can be
expect to be represented by a less than proportionate change in maximum
demand on the system as a whole, unless the proposed BCA changes
have most of their impact on commercial peak demand. In the absence of
further detailed information on the likely breakdown of the contributions to
energy savings of the proposed BCA measures, it will be assumed that, if
for instance, a 2 per cent reduction in total commercial building energy
consumption equates to a 0.5 per cent reduction in overall consumption,
the equivalent impact on overall maximum demand will be 0.5 per cent or
less.
Impacts on augmentation of generation capacity
Whether demand reductions relative to BAU will affect generation
augmentation decisions will depend on the size of the reduction relative to
the size of the planning regime, available reserve capacity or ‘headroom’
the load profile at any time and the underlying consumption growth rate.
Through time, in the BAU case, generating capacity will need to grow to
accommodate growth in maximum demand and provide reserve capacity.
ACIL Tasman (2008), in a report for Energy Supply Association of
Australia (ESSA) estimates increases in maximum demand of more than
5,800 MW between the present and 2020 with a 10 per cent emissions
cap in place. This represents more than 530MW annually in additional
generating capacity, even before allowing for preservation of headroom.
In assessing the implications of the proposed BCA measures for avoided
capital costs we would ideally calculate the reduction in the long run
for NSW 2004 suggests that this sector contribute roughly 50 per cent of the rise in the
evening peak consumption. ESSA in a submission to the Productivity Commission
inquiry into energy efficiency in 2005 reported that, of the 15per cent of peak demand
that occurs for just 24 hours per year in Sydney, 75per cent stems from domestic air
conditioners.
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