Review of Austrian Economics - The Ludwig von Mises Institute

Vedder and Gallaway: The Great Depression of 1946 31
Actual vs. predicted values for 1945-47 using annual data (all
dollar numbers in billions) were:
Year
1945
1946
1947
Actual Value
$119.6
143.9
161.9
Predicted
48-70 DATA
$140.5
149.1
158.0
Values:
29-41 DATA
$137.9
146.6
155.5
Using quarterly data for 1948-59, the predicted values for 1946-
47 (all dollar numbers in billions) were:
Quarter
1946 1
II
III
IV
1947 1
II
III
IV
Actual Consumption
$134.5
139.6
148.4
152.7
154.0
159.0
163.5
167.6
Predicted Consumption
$144.5
147.3
152.2
155.2
155.8
154.0
160.3
162.4
Postwar consumption did not exceed "normal" levels in relation to
disposable income until well into 1947—two years after peak mobilization.