Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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The evidence thus suggests a persistent underlying tendency for the unemployment rate to rise, which has possibly been in operation since the late 1960s, and almost certainly since 1974. There appears to be nothing inherently implausible about the picture drawn by Simkins, Loots and others and, indeed, as our discussion below suggests, it is consistent with trends in the world economy as a whole. Some International Comparisons International comparisons suggest that the trend in overall unemployment in South Africa is very much in keeping with what has happened abroad. It is instructive, for instance, to compare movements in the unemployment rate for 1960-1981 with the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in the period 1965-83 which are plotted in Figure 1 (the actual figures for the UK being given in Table 4). The British unemployment rate, it will be noted, shows a long upswing possibly beginning in the latter 1960s. but more clearly in about 1974, continuing right through into the 1980s. There are striking similarities between the South African and British graphs, the most relevant of which is that they show very much the same general upward trend from about 1970. The main difference is simply the absolutely higher level of the South African unemployment rate1 ) . Furthermore the British case is not a special one, significantly different from other advanced industrial countries. The unemployment rate in 1) This is probably mainly due to the proportionately much larger amount of structural, permanent unemployment, which is partly the result of the peculiar structure of the South African labour market, including such features as the migrant labour system.
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Page 2 and 3: INSllIUTt TOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC R
Page 4 and 5: i CONTENTS Page - u.t of Tabla0 and
Page 6 and 7: Preface This paper is an extension
Page 8 and 9: Applications by whltea for Employme
Page 10 and 11: Simkins. His work is noteworthy par
Page 12 and 13: There is not, to my knowledge, anot
Page 16 and 17: ~i~~~~ 1: UNEMPLOYMENT PATES: UNITE
Page 18 and 19: Table 5: Unemployment Rates in Scnn
Page 20 and 21: Thue in a number of other countries
Page 22: Table 6 Registered Unemployment Rat
Page 25 and 26: Table 7 Non-Agricultural Employment
Page 28 and 29: In the case of Blacks, employment g
Page 30 and 31: governwant intervention in foreign
Page 32 and 33: Real Intwraat Rats and Rats of Incr
Page 34 and 35: Table 9 Real Interest Rates and Ave
Page 36 and 37: grawth in general rather than to an
Page 38 and 39: hetbr th. unemployment in voluntary
Page 40 and 41: it is argued that for a small open
Page 42 and 43: imzlO.ion of this form of voluntary
Page 44 and 45: significance1). However, the findin
Page 46 and 47: Thus where the unemployment rate sh
Page 48 and 49: have expected a substantial increas
Page 50 and 51: vii) Finally, amongst the causes of
Page 52 and 53: traditionally been considerably hig
Page 54 and 55: already become much more difficult
Page 56 and 57: unemployment is deregulated markets
Page 58 and 59: 'thirties and even the postvar peri
Page 60: might, JB (1982) "The Nature of Une

Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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