Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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Table 5: Unemployment Rates in Scnne OECD Countries and South Africa in Various Years from 1974 to 1983 United States Japan Germany hance United Kingdom Italy Canada Belgium Netherlands Spain South Africa (1) SimLins (2) Current Population Survey - Source: Data for all countries except South Africa are from OECD, Economic Outlook, various issues Table R12. The South African estimates (1) are from Table 2 above and (2) are from Central Statistical Services, Statistical News Releases, various issues. - Note: llle OECD rates are based on a standardised method applied in all those countries, but naturally the South African and OECD methods are not standardised.
One consequence of this is that by 1983 the percentage unemployment rates in Canada (12.5). the Netherlandslands (12.91, the United Kingdom ( 13.5 ), Belgium (14.1) and Spain (1 7,3) do not look nearly so low compared with South Africa (21,l in 1981) as they did in 1974, before the big upsurge in OECD unemployment rates l) . Some have suggested that Simkina' estimates suffer from a lack of cyclical sensitivity. Examination of Table 2 and the graph in Figure 1, hwever, show clearly that they have been responsive to cyclical factors2). The only feature of the data which may cause some misgivings on this score is the fact that there is no significant absolute decline in the South African unemployment rate during the economic upswing from 1978 to 1981, even though there is a marked deceleration of the upward trend in 1979, a minor absolute fall in 1980 and only a very slight increase in 1981 to the 1979 level. As we shall see belar there are good reasons for this, but in any case the OECD data presented above suggest that the tendency for the unemployment rate not to fall during an economic upswing is not something peculiar to South Africa. A similar, persistent upward trend emerges in the case of several other countries: Spanish unemployment rates go on increasing throughout the OECD boom from 1976 to 1980, as do the French, the Italian (but for a minor decrease in 1980) and the 6elgian3), 1) It is also noteworthy that the Spanish unemployment rate increases from 2.4 per cent in 1970 to 16.6 per cent in 1982 whereas the South African rate rose from 16,2 per cent in 1970 to 21.1 per cent in 1981, so that the Spanish rate not only rose proportionately more but also by a larger number of percentage points. The magnitude of the increase in the unemployment rate in this country is therefore not out of line with experience elsewhere. 2) Figure 1, for instance, shows that from 1970 to 1977 the British and South African unemployment rates move up and down together in more or less perfect unison, so that over this period at least the South African estimates are as cyclically sensitive as the British. 3) In several other cases the unemployment rate does not fall in all the years of the cyclical upswing of the latter 1970s.
Page 2 and 3: INSllIUTt TOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC R
Page 4 and 5: i CONTENTS Page - u.t of Tabla0 and
Page 6 and 7: Preface This paper is an extension
Page 8 and 9: Applications by whltea for Employme
Page 10 and 11: Simkins. His work is noteworthy par
Page 12 and 13: There is not, to my knowledge, anot
Page 14 and 15: The evidence thus suggests a persis
Page 16 and 17: ~i~~~~ 1: UNEMPLOYMENT PATES: UNITE
Page 20 and 21: Thue in a number of other countries
Page 22: Table 6 Registered Unemployment Rat
Page 25 and 26: Table 7 Non-Agricultural Employment
Page 28 and 29: In the case of Blacks, employment g
Page 30 and 31: governwant intervention in foreign
Page 32 and 33: Real Intwraat Rats and Rats of Incr
Page 34 and 35: Table 9 Real Interest Rates and Ave
Page 36 and 37: grawth in general rather than to an
Page 38 and 39: hetbr th. unemployment in voluntary
Page 40 and 41: it is argued that for a small open
Page 42 and 43: imzlO.ion of this form of voluntary
Page 44 and 45: significance1). However, the findin
Page 46 and 47: Thus where the unemployment rate sh
Page 48 and 49: have expected a substantial increas
Page 50 and 51: vii) Finally, amongst the causes of
Page 52 and 53: traditionally been considerably hig
Page 54 and 55: already become much more difficult
Page 56 and 57: unemployment is deregulated markets
Page 58 and 59: 'thirties and even the postvar peri
Page 60: might, JB (1982) "The Nature of Une

Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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