Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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traditionally been considerably higher than in other metropolitan areas (particularly Durban and the Cape Peninsula),') the increasing capital-intensity in the PwV region has probably had an especially severe effect on unemployment amongst Blacks. And, because of influx controls, this unemployment is to a large extent located in the Bantu areas2). 3. Policy Rather than attempting a detailed analysis of various possible measures for employment creation, the aim of this final section is to comment generally on the policy areas which seem to be most important and which therefore seem to call for particular attention. As the discussion above suggests, the problem of rising unemployment rates stems basically from the slower rate of growth of the modern, formal sector of the economy. An adequate rate of growth of employment, such as vas last experienced in the 1960s, cannot be regained vithout a significant increase in the overall growth rate. There is much discussion these days of creating jobs in small scale agriculture, small business and the informal sector, and of the need for increasing reliance on these sectors. It is probably widely recognised, hovever, that vhile a groving proportion of jobs in these sectors may turn out to be necessary, such a trend vould simply be indicative of the severity of the unemployment problem vhich besets us rather than a satisfactory ansver to it. 1) See Bell (1983: 43-47]. 2) See the Government White Paper (1984 : 23 and 27) for an indication of inter-regional differences in unemployment rates amongst Blacks in South Africa, based on CPS data.
This clearly does not mean that informal sector unemployment is unimportant or even that measures should not be adopted which facilitate its expansion. (kl the contrary, given the crisis of employment in the formal sectors of the economy, the question of the absolute magnitude, trends in, and the nature of informal sector employment, and of the possibility that it might help increasingly in future to alleviate the situation of people unable to find formal sector jobs, is of vital importance. This is especially so since the currently difficult economic conditions being experienced by the economy as a whole may well persist for some years to come. The poasibility of changing regulations, such as those relating to street hawkers in urban areas, which at present impede the activities of informal sector income earners, as well as various other aspects of the problem of informal sector employment, therefore, call for serious reconsideration. In addition to the possibility that it will help provide badly needed jobs, it might well be found, as it has been elsewhere, that informal sector activities perform a positive economic function. It is quite clear, too, from our discussion above, that the possibility that the informal sector has already generated a significant increase in employment in recent years, and may do so to an even greater extent in future, has considerable significance for the way in which the worldwide problem of unemployment manifests itself in this country compared with other, more advanced countries. Whereas in Europe it has mainly involved a substantial increase in open, full unemployment, with a sharp dichotomy between those employed and those out of work, in South Africa, as (probably also) in other semi-industrialised and less developed countries, it is likely to a substantial extent to involve an increase in underemployment as well, both in the homelands and in urban and peri-urban areas. This may, indeed, be a significant advantage which a comparatively underdeveloped country like South Africa has over advanced industrial countries, particularly in economic conditions in which it has
Page 2 and 3: INSllIUTt TOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC R
Page 4 and 5: i CONTENTS Page - u.t of Tabla0 and
Page 6 and 7: Preface This paper is an extension
Page 8 and 9: Applications by whltea for Employme
Page 10 and 11: Simkins. His work is noteworthy par
Page 12 and 13: There is not, to my knowledge, anot
Page 14 and 15: The evidence thus suggests a persis
Page 16 and 17: ~i~~~~ 1: UNEMPLOYMENT PATES: UNITE
Page 18 and 19: Table 5: Unemployment Rates in Scnn
Page 20 and 21: Thue in a number of other countries
Page 22: Table 6 Registered Unemployment Rat
Page 25 and 26: Table 7 Non-Agricultural Employment
Page 28 and 29: In the case of Blacks, employment g
Page 30 and 31: governwant intervention in foreign
Page 32 and 33: Real Intwraat Rats and Rats of Incr
Page 34 and 35: Table 9 Real Interest Rates and Ave
Page 36 and 37: grawth in general rather than to an
Page 38 and 39: hetbr th. unemployment in voluntary
Page 40 and 41: it is argued that for a small open
Page 42 and 43: imzlO.ion of this form of voluntary
Page 44 and 45: significance1). However, the findin
Page 46 and 47: Thus where the unemployment rate sh
Page 48 and 49: have expected a substantial increas
Page 50 and 51: vii) Finally, amongst the causes of
Page 54 and 55: already become much more difficult
Page 56 and 57: unemployment is deregulated markets
Page 58 and 59: 'thirties and even the postvar peri
Page 60: might, JB (1982) "The Nature of Une

Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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