Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa
Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa
Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa
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hetbr th. unemployment <strong>in</strong> voluntary or <strong>in</strong>voluntary, cyclical or<br />
ntnuztur.1. natural or unnatural, without recogniz<strong>in</strong>g that there has<br />
<strong>in</strong> fact boon a long downsw<strong>in</strong>g (whether or not it vill cont<strong>in</strong>ue <strong>in</strong>to<br />
the future1 <strong>in</strong> the rate of growth of the <strong>South</strong> <strong>Africa</strong>n economy, and<br />
hav<strong>in</strong>g aara notion of its causes. For these matters cannot usefully<br />
be dimwned airply <strong>in</strong> tho abntract, if we are bent on understand<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the particular concrete cane of <strong>South</strong> <strong>Africa</strong>. They are clearly also<br />
vital <strong>in</strong> decid<strong>in</strong>g on the moat appropriate meaaures for deal<strong>in</strong>g with<br />
unemploymant <strong>in</strong> th<strong>in</strong> country.<br />
is) In the light of thm above let us conaider the question, which has<br />
benn prdnrnt <strong>in</strong> the <strong>South</strong> <strong>Africa</strong>n debate, whether <strong>in</strong>voluntary<br />
-lopant can exiat <strong>in</strong> the long-term. Some exponents of the nev<br />
cknnical nchwl appear to nay that long-run <strong>in</strong>voluntary unemployment<br />
ia thwretically imponaible and hence cannot exist <strong>in</strong> the longrural).<br />
Ihua th. renponae to any evidence that the unemployment<br />
rat. <strong>in</strong> ria<strong>in</strong>g necularly tend. to be either that the evidence is<br />
flmd (perhpa railact<strong>in</strong>g fall<strong>in</strong>g labour market participation<br />
raten), or if the rim<strong>in</strong>g unemployment trend <strong>in</strong> accepted, that this<br />
mat reflect ris<strong>in</strong>g voluntary unemployment. In other words, it is<br />
ilplied that any perniatent <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the unemployment rate must be<br />
d m to a r<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g 'natural' rate of unemployment, the rate of unemploy<br />
-t, <strong>in</strong> effect, which im conniatent with 'full empl~yment'~~.<br />
Th<strong>in</strong> v im on the theoretical impossibility of long-term (as diat<strong>in</strong>ct<br />
fra cyclical or trannitionall <strong>in</strong>voluntary unemployment would seem<br />
1) The ma<strong>in</strong> exceptioru allowed by them (apart f rm very special cases.<br />
<strong>in</strong>volv<strong>in</strong>g eluticitien of aupply and demand for labour) would seem to<br />
k unqloyment due to <strong>in</strong>tervention <strong>in</strong> the market by government,<br />
trada union. etc. S<strong>in</strong>ce they tend implicitly to def<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>voluntary<br />
unamployment an unemployment due to the failure of the labour market<br />
to clear; for reanonn <strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sic to the market itself (rather than<br />
kcaune of government or trade union <strong>in</strong>tervention), however, th<strong>in</strong><br />
tend. not to ba regarded an <strong>in</strong>voluntary unemployment.<br />
1) It <strong>in</strong> thua seen an <strong>in</strong>volv<strong>in</strong>g a ateady redef<strong>in</strong>ition of the<br />
u~lployment rate cons<strong>in</strong>tent with full employment.