Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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1977, and the clear upward trend in unemployment rates in OECD countries and mngst non-Blacks in South Africa from 1974 on, the case for seeking to explain the peculiarities of the movement in South African unemployment rates in structural term seems to be very etrong. In the light of the evidence considered above, this section is devoted to consideration of various possible explanations of the problem of unemployment in South Africa. Much of the discussion we shall find, hovever, has further implications for the problem of definition and meaeurant, and we are therefore by no means done with the question of the validity of alternative measures. (1) The evidence suggests that the rising trend in unemployment rates has to do primarily with a fall in the rate of growth of the demand for labour rather than with any eiqnificant shifts in supply'). The rates of growth of non-agricultural employment and of population, by racial group, are summarized by five year intervals in Table 72). 1) That is, as we shall see below, it does not appear to be plausible to attribute the rising unemployment rates to shifts in supply related to changes in the rate of growth of the etonomically active population or to a voluntary withholding of labour services by workers, resulting either from short-term influences (such as inflation) or longer term institutional factors (such as the social security system, land-ownership in the homelands etc.) affecting the incentive to accept jobs. 2) In our present discussion the population growth rate is for eimplicity used ae an approximate index of the long-run rate of growth of the labour force, our main purpose here being to illustrate the eiqnificance of declining rates of growth of the demand for labour. Aleo, becauee of the more problematical nature of estimates of employment - - in commerce and services, we use employment - - in the four non-agricultural sectors - mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity and construction - for which there are reliable loncr time-series employment data, as an index of employment in the non-agricultural sectors in general. Certain possible problems with thim procedure are referred to below.
Table 7 Non-Agricultural Employment and Population Growth Rates (Average Annual %) Non-agricul= tural Employment Population Growth Rates Total Non- (A11 races) Blacks Whites Coloureds Asians Blacks Source: Various issues of South African Statistics and Quarterly Bulletin of Statistics. Notes: 1. Non-Agricultural Employment is the sum of employment in mining, quarrying, manufacturing, construction and electricity. 2. The non-Black population growth rate is the rate of growth of the combined White, Coloured and African population. 3. 1980-1983 is the 2.75 year period from June 1980 to March 1983.
Page 2 and 3: INSllIUTt TOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC R
Page 4 and 5: i CONTENTS Page - u.t of Tabla0 and
Page 6 and 7: Preface This paper is an extension
Page 8 and 9: Applications by whltea for Employme
Page 10 and 11: Simkins. His work is noteworthy par
Page 12 and 13: There is not, to my knowledge, anot
Page 14 and 15: The evidence thus suggests a persis
Page 16 and 17: ~i~~~~ 1: UNEMPLOYMENT PATES: UNITE
Page 18 and 19: Table 5: Unemployment Rates in Scnn
Page 20 and 21: Thue in a number of other countries
Page 22: Table 6 Registered Unemployment Rat
Page 28 and 29: In the case of Blacks, employment g
Page 30 and 31: governwant intervention in foreign
Page 32 and 33: Real Intwraat Rats and Rats of Incr
Page 34 and 35: Table 9 Real Interest Rates and Ave
Page 36 and 37: grawth in general rather than to an
Page 38 and 39: hetbr th. unemployment in voluntary
Page 40 and 41: it is argued that for a small open
Page 42 and 43: imzlO.ion of this form of voluntary
Page 44 and 45: significance1). However, the findin
Page 46 and 47: Thus where the unemployment rate sh
Page 48 and 49: have expected a substantial increas
Page 50 and 51: vii) Finally, amongst the causes of
Page 52 and 53: traditionally been considerably hig
Page 54 and 55: already become much more difficult
Page 56 and 57: unemployment is deregulated markets
Page 58 and 59: 'thirties and even the postvar peri
Page 60: might, JB (1982) "The Nature of Une

Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa

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