Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa
Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa
Bell, Trevor : Unemployment in South Africa
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Preface<br />
This paper is an extension of work undertaken by the present writer <strong>in</strong><br />
1983 on "The Growth and Structure of Manufactur<strong>in</strong>g Employment <strong>in</strong> Natal".<br />
That study revealed <strong>in</strong>ter alia a decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g rate of growth of manufactur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
employment <strong>in</strong> the country as a whole and <strong>in</strong> particular <strong>in</strong> the major<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustrial areas, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g the Durban-P<strong>in</strong>etown region. It was therefore<br />
decided to focus directly on the problem of unemployment, <strong>in</strong>itially<br />
deal<strong>in</strong>g with the question of scale and def<strong>in</strong>ition, causes, certa<strong>in</strong> other<br />
conceptual issues, and remedies, <strong>in</strong> relation to the country as a whole,<br />
with a view to us<strong>in</strong>g it as a background to subsequent analysis focuss<strong>in</strong>g<br />
more particularly on the problem of unemployment <strong>in</strong> the Natal region. The<br />
present study deals with the problem at the national level, and it is<br />
hoped that a further analysis deal<strong>in</strong>g with Natal will be undertaken at the<br />
Institute <strong>in</strong> due course.<br />
I am grateful to Mahaviehnu Padayachee for his assistance <strong>in</strong> extract<strong>in</strong>g<br />
statistical data and <strong>in</strong> conduct<strong>in</strong>g a bibliographical search, and for his<br />
friendly <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> the work. A prelim<strong>in</strong>ary report on some aspects of<br />
the project, entitled "<strong>Unemployment</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>South</strong> <strong>Africa</strong>: Trends, Causes and<br />
Cures", was presented as a jo<strong>in</strong>t paper by myself and Vishnu Padayachee at<br />
the Conference of the "Second Carnegie Inquiry <strong>in</strong>to Poverty and<br />
Development <strong>in</strong> <strong>South</strong>ern <strong>Africa</strong>" held <strong>in</strong> Cape Town from 13 to 19 April,<br />
1984.<br />
A special word of thanks is due to Charles Simk<strong>in</strong>s of the School of<br />
Economics, University of Cape Town for a number of conversations which<br />
helped me to clarify certa<strong>in</strong> aspects of the calculation of unemployment<br />
rates <strong>in</strong> <strong>South</strong> <strong>Africa</strong>, and for provid<strong>in</strong>g me very recently with revised,<br />
unpublished unemployment estimates. Naturally, neither he nor anyone else<br />
is responsible for any rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g empirical or theoretical errors.<br />
I owe a great debt <strong>in</strong> this, as <strong>in</strong> my earlier work, dur<strong>in</strong>g the past<br />
eighteen months, to Professor John Butler-Adam who has made my stay <strong>in</strong> the<br />
Institute a most enjoyable and stimulat<strong>in</strong>g experience.