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Chapter 4 – Travel Demand Forecasting and Future Conditions
Table 4-3: Omnitrans Route Validation by Route
Relative shares of local bus trips in the San
Bernardino Valley made for five trip purposes are
summarized in Table 4-4. The results shown in
this table are expected since the transit bias
constants for the San Bernardino Valley were
calibrated to match the distribution of transit trips
by trip purpose.
Table 4-4: Omnitrans Ridership by Trip Purpose
The Year 2006 Omnitrans on-board bus survey
reports that 53 percent of Omnitrans riders are
from households with annual incomes of less
than $20,000. The SBVFM accurately reflects
this fact, with the mode choice models creating
54 percent of its transit trips from lower income
households.
4.2 Year 2035 Future Conditions
The San Bernardino Valley Focus Model was
used to produce the ridership forecasts for the
BRT corridors. The model uses a horizon year
2035 for regional network and socio-economic
input data.
Year 2035 Population and Employment
Forecasts
The population of the San Bernardino Valley is
expected to grow to over 2 million people in the
Year 2035, which is 37 percent higher than the
Year 2006 population. Table 4-5 displays
population and employment growth data for the
year 2035 for each of the ten BRT corridors.
This table shows that the corridors currently
house between 70,000 and 215,000 people, and
the growth forecasts indicate that population in
the corridors will grow to between 115,000 and
273,000 people in the Year 2035. There are
132 80 System-Wide Transit Corridor Plan