New! System-Wide Transit Corridor Plan for the San ... - Omnitrans

Chapter 4 – Travel Demand Forecasting and Future Conditions
• Sunline Transit Agency service. Service
includes a proposed bus service between the
Coachella Valley and hospital services in
Loma Linda. This service would be operated
by Sunline Transit Agency, and would provide
transfer services to the San Bernardino
Valley for Morongo Basin residents.
4.3 Year 2035 Model Application
and Results
Year 2035 Transit Assignment Results
The analysis of the 2035 Vision Alternative
began by coding all transit routes in the
Omnitrans system with high service frequencies
– 15-minute peak and off-peak period headways
for local routes, 5-minute peak and 10-minute offpeak
headways for BRT routes. Iterative model
runs (equilibration) were used to fine tune the
headways to provide cost-effective service with
high seating probability throughout the system.
The results of this equilibration process are
displayed in Tables 4-6 for BRT Routes and 4-7
for Local Bus Routes. This table also displays
the total weekday ridership forecasts for each of
the Omnitrans bus routes in the 2035 Vision
Alternative.
Table 4-8 displays more detail of the total
ridership data for each of the ten BRT corridors.
This table includes daily and annual ridership
forecasts, and daily passenger miles and
passenger hours for each corridor.
Each corridor is served by a combination of BRT
service and local bus service. Since the BRT
stations are spaced approximately one mile
apart, the local bus service in each corridor is
required to serve transit customers at less
popular bus stops. Nine of the ten BRT corridors
have a single local bus route that acts as a
shadow service to the BRT route. Corridor 5 has
several local bus routes that act as a shadow
service over different portions of the BRT route.
The total ridership data displayed in Table 4-8
demonstrate the wide range of ridership potential
for the ten corridors, ranging from over 3 million
annual passengers in Corridors 1, 2, and 5, to
less than 1 million annual passengers in Corridor
8. This ridership data and other performance
criteria are used in the following chapter to
evaluate and compare the corridors, and to
recommend a phasing plan for implementation of
the BRT corridors.
Exhibits 4-5 and 4-6, show the future daily
boardings and future daily bus volumes,
respectively.
Mode of Access
Table 4-9 displays the total access and egress
modes for each of the BRT routes for the
completed system of ten BRT routes. This table
shows that 40% of BRT passengers are
expected to access the system by walking, four
percent will use an automobile to drive to the
BRT station, and the remaining 56% will transfer
from another transit route. This table also shows
the number of parking spaces needed to
accommodate full build out of the BRT system.
BRT Route 1 (E Street) is expected to have the
highest percentage of passengers accessing the
route by walk mode – 47 percent – due to the
high density of both residential development and
major attractions in the corridor. BRT Route 8
(Sierra Street) is expected to have the lowest
percentage of passengers accessing the route by
walk mode – 30 percent – due to the relatively
low density of residential development and
attractions.
Drive access to the various BRT routes ranges
from less than one percent (BRT Route 2 –
Foothill East) to over seven percent (BRT Route
4 – Euclid). The BRT routes with the higher drive
access shares are found in corridors that serve
the periphery of the ultimate BRT system, where
commuters from outlying communities will be
more likely to drive to one of the terminal stations
in the system. The BRT routes with the lower
drive access shares are found in corridors that
will be centrally located within the ultimate
system, where transit passengers will be more
likely to have convenient walk access to the
system.
BRT Route 1 (E Street) is the only route that is
expected to have less than 50 percent of its
passengers transferring to or from the BRT route.
BRT Route 8 (Sierra Street), which connects the
east-west BRT corridors, is expected to have the
highest transfer rate – 67 percent.
88 System-Wide Transit Corridor Plan
132