World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

© OECD/IEA, 2011
By country, Iraq provides the biggest projected increase in production between 2010 and
2035. Most OPEC countries increase production over the Outlook period, while production
falls in most non-OPEC countries. The main exceptions are Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan,
all of which see an increase in output of over 2 mb/d or more (Figure 3.17). The biggest
projected declines occur in China, the United Kingdom, Norway and Russia.
Non-OPEC producon
In the New Policies Scenario, non-OPEC oil production in aggregate declines slightly over the
projection period, from 48.8 mb/d in 2010 to 47.7 mb/d in 2035. However, this trend masks
significant underlying changes: the 5 mb/d increase of crude oil production from Brazil and
Kazakhstan is more than offset by declines in most other non-OPEC producers, resulting in
an overall decline of 7 mb/d of crude oil output. The balance is partially redressed by an
increase of 5 mb/d in the output of unconventional oil, mainly from oil sands in Canada,
CTL projects (principally in China, South Africa and to a lesser degree the United States) and
an increase in NGL production of 1 mb/d (Table 3.5).
Latin American production decreases as mature declining basins are only partly offset
by increased production from the deepwater pre-salt play off Brazil. In late 2010, the
state oil company, Petrobras, launched the world’s largest-ever share offering, raising
around $67 billion, to support its plans to invest $128 billion over the five years to 2016 in
developing pre-salt discoveries. This will involve building 11 floating production, storage and
offloading vessels, up to 28 drilling rigs (in Brazilian yards) and 146 supply boats to support
the drilling of up to 500 wells. This effort, along with Petrobras’ other projects, is projected
to drive up Brazil’s production from 2.1 mb/d in 2010 to about 3 mb/d in 2015 and 4.4 mb/d
by 2020. We project production to rise further to 5.2 mb/d by 2035.
The Caspian region strengthens its role as a key oil producer and exporter throughout the
projection period. 13 Kazakhstan will be an important area of new oil production capacity, with
production projected to increase from 1.6 mb/d in 2010 to nearly 4 mb/d in 2035. Kazakhstan’s
projected increase in production has been pushed back in this year’s Outlook, due to continued
wrangling over the Kashagan oilfield development. This super-giant field was discovered in
2000 and initial production is anticipated in late 2012 at the earliest. Production from the
first development phase should ramp up to 300 kb/d and subsequent phases could see total
production reach 1.3 mb/d by 2030. The development has been plagued by cost over-runs and
schedule delays due to technical complexities. The Kazakh government did not approve the
Phase 2 development plan in early 2011, citing concerns about the cost and schedule.
Canada sees rapid growth in oil production throughout the projection period, mainly from
oil sands (output of which grows from 1.5 mb/d in 2010 to 4.5 mb/d in 2035). This could be
hindered by continuing debate about the environmental effects of oil sands exploitation
(IEA, 2010). However, the Canadian oil industry and provincial and federal governments
continue to seek ways to reduce the environmental footprint and less intrusive in-situ
extraction techniques are becoming more common. For example, the government of Alberta
has committed to spend $2 billion on developing carbon capture and storage projects.
13. See WEO-2010 for a detailed analysis of energy prospects for the Caspian region (IEA, 2010).
Chapter 3 - Oil market outlook 125
3