World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

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© OECD/IEA, 2011
ANNEX D REFERENCES PART A: Global energy trends Chapter 1: Context and analytical framework IEA (Internaonal Energy Agency) (2010a), World Energy Outlook 2010, OECD/IEA, Paris. — (2010b), Energy Technology Perspecves 2010, OECD/IEA, Paris. — (2011), Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2011, OECD/IEA, Paris. IMF (Internaonal Monetary Fund) (2011), World Economic Outlook: Slowing Growth, Risks Ahead, IMF, Washington, DC, September. OECD (Organisaon for Economic Co-operaon and Development) (2011), OECD Economic Outlook No. 89, OECD, Paris, May. UNPD (United Naons Populaon Division) (2011), World Populaon Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Naons, New York. Chapter 2: Energy projections to 2035 BGR (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaen und Rohstoffe – German Federal Instute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) (2010), Energierohstoffe 2010, Reserven, Ressourcen, Verfügbarkeit, Tabellen [Energy Resources 2010, Reserves, Resources, Availability, Tables], BGR, Hannover, Germany. Cedigaz (2010), Natural Gas in the World, Instut Français du Pétrole, Rueil-Malmaison, France. IEA (Internaonal Energy Agency) (2007), World Energy Outlook 2007, OECD/IEA, Paris. IIASA (Internaonal Instute for Applied Systems Analysis) (2011), Emissions of Air Pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2011 Energy Scenarios, report prepared for the IEA using the GAINS model, IIASA, Laxenberg, Austria, www.worldenergyoutlook.org. NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency, OECD) and IAEA (Internaonal Atomic Energy Agency) (2010), Uranium 2009: Resources, Producon and Demand, OECD, Paris. O&GJ (Oil and Gas Journal) (2010), “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Producon”, Oil and Gas Journal, Pennwell Corporaon, Oklahoma City, United States, December. © OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3: Oil market outlook API (American Petroleum Instute) (2011), The Economic Impacts of the Oil and Natural Gas Industry on the U.S. Economy in 2009, Discussion Paper No. 119, API, Washington, DC. Annex D - References 645
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WORLD ENERGY 2 0 11 OUTLOOK
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FOREWORD It is the job of governmen
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS © OECD/IEA, 2011
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Alexey Biteryakov
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 James Jensen Jan-
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Jeff Piper Oleg P
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Liu Xiaoli Vitaly Yermakov Shigehir
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CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 1
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Trade 136 Trends in oil and gas pro
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9 Implications of Russia’s energy
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Electricity access - financing on-g
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3.5 Average annual change in transp
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5.19 Renewables grid integration co
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8.13 Changes in Russian natural gas
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11.14 Cumulative coal-supply invest
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List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERG
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10.5 CO 2 emissions from coal combu
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8.5 The “Northern Route” to mar
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Comments and questions are welcome
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “If we don’t
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Rising transport demand and upstrea
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Treading water or full steam ahead
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Achieving energy for all will not c
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PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PREFACE
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CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FR
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East and North Africa, a region tha
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 1 - Conte
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The New Policies Scenario should no
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on welfare programmes. While this i
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6.8 billion in 2009 to around 8.6 b
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Energy prices The evolution of ener
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Natural gas prices Historically, na
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Figure 1.2 Ratio of average natura
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In the 450 Scenar
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CHAPTER 2 ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 203
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In the 450 Scenario, global energy
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Figure 2.4 World energy-related CO
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Box 2.1 The impact of lower near-t
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 What ar
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Figure 2.7 Shares of energy source
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of the total in 2035, the absolute
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In Latin America,
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adoption of hybrids (32% of passeng
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Figure 2.12 Incremental energy dem
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Figure 2.14 Incremental world ener
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production continue to clarify the
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stabilising thereafter, to settle a
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The answer will depend on China’s
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investment needs are not as high, b
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Energy-related emissions Greenhouse
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 2 - Energ
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CHAPTER 3 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK Will i
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the assumed higher GDP growth, howe
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Policies Scenario, OECD primary dem
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Chapter 13 for a discussion of ener
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if large-scale projects were succes
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Passenger light-duty vehicles Passe
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countries own a car today, while av
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Box 3.1 The future of car making T
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wait-and-see strategy in a still na
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eserves additions amounted to 29 bi
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Figure 3.15 World oil production i
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 By country, Iraq
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in production from older fields. Ru
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States (US DOE/EIA, 2011a). Of cour
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Europe’s production decline is we
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have acknowledged that the target l
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 this potential wi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3 - Oil m
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and most of the easily accessible o
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egions where international oil comp
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Trends in upstream spending differ
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Impact of deferred upstream investm
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good by other regions. Higher oil a
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atios of gas and coal prices to oil
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Oil demand falls much less in volum
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than offset by higher oil prices (a
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CHAPTER 4 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOO
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decreases through the projection pe
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Middle East (included in “other e
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Figure 4.4 Primary natural gas dem
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Table 4.3 Primary natural gas prod
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Table 4.4 Primary natural gas prod
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production growth in Iran is likely
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projections of the New Policies Sce
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of additional unconventional gas su
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SPOTLIGHT Do all roads lead to a Go
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CHAPTER 5 POWER AND RENEWABLES OUTL
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Around 80% of the growth in electri
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Figure 5.2 Share of world electric
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Figure 5.4 Incremental global coal
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driving the growth in this technolo
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wind power producer. Generation fro
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In OECD countries, the reduction in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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Box 5.1 Costs of integrating varia
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of renewables can also improve capa
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Focus on T&D infrastructure Robust
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years and this is set to continue.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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total system integration costs (see
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systems, smart grids can also incre
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CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 45
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Box 6.1 What is special about 2°C
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 was driven by eco
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Table 6.1 World anthropogenic gree
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over 6 000 terawatt hours (TWh) in
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Efficiency policies are by far the
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Union in the 450 Scenario). China a
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SPOTLIGHT The International Year of
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The power generation sector plays a
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 6 - Clima
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the total). 7 Refurbishment of buil
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which by 2035 are $42/tonne, or 38%
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Implications of delayed action This
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cumulative budgeted emissions of th
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of its technical lifetime before 20
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the case for transport, however, th
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Figure 6.17 Potential CO 2 emissio
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example, it would require an averag
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Figure 6.19 Change in global energ
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PART B OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY P
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ENERGY P
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(Urengoy and Yamburg) that have mad
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Figure 7.2 Energy production in Ru
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Trends in policies and governance T
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and those in Russian strategy docum
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Another target adopted by the Russi
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Figure 7.4 Total energy costs as a
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accounts for a significant share (F
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stricter building codes, are consid
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Figure 7.9 Primary energy savings
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this decline is projected to contin
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The current contribution of non-fos
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energy economy and the government c
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Figure 7.15 Age profile of install
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Reform efforts directed at the elec
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difficult to assess with any accura
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energy demand in the transport sect
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at around 20 kilogrammes of oil equ
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In the New Policies Scenario, polic
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN RESOURCES AND SUP
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Figure 8.2 Russian oil balance in
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Russian industrial groups (and ther
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subsequent updates, 6 IEA analysis
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Our USGS-based estimates have been
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9.6 mb/d throughout the period to 2
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incentives for companies to invest
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Production in Eastern Siberia is pr
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Estimating decline rates at existin
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Natural gas Resources Proven reserv
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ecoverable resources suggest, Russi
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 The las
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Figure 8.13 Changes in Russian nat
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Flaring The rate of utilisation of
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Box 8.5 The “Northern Route” t
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information about project developme
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the Kansko-Achinsk basin and Easter
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not been affected by any change of
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Russia has significant uranium reso
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obstacle, as discussed for the coal
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The adoption of renewable technolog
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CHAPTER 9 IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA’
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Figure 9.1 Structure of Russian ex
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Taken together, our assumption for
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in infrastructure for liquefied nat
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in the Middle East (see Chapter 3).
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There is similar evidence in the oi
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with the overall aim to decrease th
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Table 9.1 Main gas trade flows fro
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At the same time, the position of R
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Policies Scenario, so that they are
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Comparing this Outlook with Russian
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PART C OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS PRE
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CHAPTER 10 COAL DEMAND PROSPECTS Tr
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Box 10.1 A decade of booming coal
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the imposition of a carbon price an
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Table 10.3 Summary of the main dri
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Figure 10.5 World crude steel prod
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under $200/tonne in nominal terms b
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Box 10.3 Coal-fired power generati
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The projections described above, an
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Table 10.4 Levelised electricity g
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Fuel choice in industry Coal has di
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ange of capital costs only for capa
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In the 450 Scenario, OECD coal dema
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 PCC plants, they
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Figure 10.16 Coal-fired generating
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coal demand rebounds in the short t
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energy intensity and carbon intensi
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Figure 10.20 New additions of powe
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 around 85% of the
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Figure 10.24 Coal-fired generating
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In the New Policies Scenario, coal
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over the projection period, as the
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urning for power generation. Load f
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CHAPTER 11 COAL SUPPLY AND INVESTME
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Table 11.1 Coal* production by typ
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in 2009 (Figure 11.2). Marginal cha
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Just under three-quarters, or nearl
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generally risen much less than inte
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and the United States have moved up
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Underground mining methods (longwal
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near the coast. Furthermore, bottle
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capacity in the next two to four ye
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exemptions and credits, grants for
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coal derivatives, which together al
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Table 11.6 Key figures for the 30
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Trade prospects In the New Policies
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Colombia, along with new entrants s
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freight, to connect the coal-fields
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monopoly, which is able to extract
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the west of China, together with in
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the past few years, especially of c
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Indonesian and South African steam
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coal sold at the mine-mouth. The co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 rates, total coal
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their markets. Additionally, over t
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Figure 11.25 Coal production in So
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Figure 11.26 Har
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PART D SPECIAL TOPICS PREFACE Part
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CHAPTER 12 THE IMPLICATIONS OF LESS
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On the basis of a necessarily arbit
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of the construction starts in 2010,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 SPOTLIGHT How did
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 the country’s 5
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Our projections of future nuclear p
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projected in the New Policies Scena
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Figure 12.4 Power generation by fu
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period 2011 to 2035 are higher by 1
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In short, to the extent that energy
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other generating options because of
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CHAPTER 13 ENERGY FOR ALL Financing
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 International con
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Table 13.1 People without access t
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Box 13.2 Measuring investment in m
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In the New Policies Scenario, aroun
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 13 - Ener
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significant progress in establishin
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most suitable option for all urban
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In the Energy for All Case, hydropo
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additional investment of $20 billio
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As well as the economic development
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to pay. In these areas, the share o
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Electricity access - financing mini
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y entrepreneurs providing solar por
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The government, through a national
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Multilateral and bilateral developm
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generation at an investment cost of
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including to end-users, to generate
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to be sufficiently expert regarding
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CHAPTER 14 DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY S
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G-20 and APEC leaders in 2009 and 2
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availability and foreign currency e
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subsidies, which may subsidise part
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Figure 14.3 Economic cost of fossi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 14 - Deve
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In practice, the poor capture only
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that would follow from subsidy remo
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SPOTLIGHT Are the G-20 and APEC com
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lessens the burden of the rising co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 While the return
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Measuring renewable-energy subsidie
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grow considerably in non-OECD count
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exploited earlier, but there are ex
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 in the United Sta
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As depicted in the 450 Scenario, mo
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lowest in Japan, due partly to elec
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 ANNEXES
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR SCENARIO PROJECT
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 World: Current Po
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World: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD: Current Pol
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OECD: Current Policies and 450 Scen
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Americas: Cu
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OECD Americas: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 United States: Cu
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United States: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Europe: Curr
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OECD Europe: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 European Union: C
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European Union: Current Policies an
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Asia Oceania
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OECD Asia Oceania: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Japan: Current Po
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Japan: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD: Current
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Non-OECD: Current Policies and 450
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 E. Europe/Eurasia
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E. Europe/Eurasia: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Russia: Current P
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Russia: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD Asia: Cu
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Non-OECD Asia: Current Policies and
Page 595 and 596: © OECD/IEA, 2011 China: Current Po
Page 597 and 598: China: Current Policies and 450 Sce
Page 599 and 600: © OECD/IEA, 2011 India: Current Po
Page 601 and 602: India: Current Policies and 450 Sce
Page 603 and 604: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Middle East: Curr
Page 605 and 606: Middle East: Current Policies and 4
Page 607 and 608: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Africa: Current P
Page 609 and 610: Africa: Current Policies and 450 Sc
Page 611 and 612: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Latin America: Cu
Page 613 and 614: Latin America: Current Policies and
Page 615 and 616: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Brazil: Current P
Page 617 and 618: Brazil: Current Policies and 450 Sc
Page 619 and 620: ANNEX B POLICIES AND MEASURES BY SC
Page 621 and 622: The specific policies adopted for d
Page 623 and 624: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Annex B - Policie
Page 631 and 632: ANNEX C UNITS, DEFINITIONS, REGIONA
Page 633 and 634: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Definitions Advan
Page 635 and 636: Coking coal Coking coal is a type o
Page 637 and 638: departure and port of arrival, and
Page 639 and 640: manufacturing and mining), transpor
Page 641 and 642: Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, B
Page 643 and 644: © OECD/IEA, 2011 CNG compressed na
Page 645: PSA PV RD&D RDD&D SAGD SCO SO 2 SRM
Page 649 and 650: © OECD/IEA, 2011 O&GJ (Oil and Gas
Page 651 and 652: © OECD/IEA, 2011 — (2011a), East
Page 653 and 654: RosHydroMet (2011), Report on Clima
Page 655 and 656: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Popel, O., et al.
Page 657 and 658: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Morse, R. and G.
Page 659 and 660: © OECD/IEA, 2011 GPOBA (Global Par
Page 661 and 662: IEA, OECD (Organisaon for Economic
Page 663 and 664: © OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 665 and 666: © OECD/IEA, 2011
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