World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

over the projection period, as the share of nuclear and renewables in the fuel mix increases.
In the New Policies Scenario, after rebounding to pre-recession consumption levels by
2015, demand remains fairly flat, at around 165 Mtce, throughout the projection period,
as energy efficiency gains temper excessive electricity growth and other fuels mainly cover
increased electricity demand. In absolute terms, coal use for power generation remains
broadly flat, and coal’s share in the generating mix decreases from 17% in 2009 to 16%
in 2035 (Figure 10.27). However, there is scope for significantly higher coal use for power
generation, if the programme of building new nuclear reactors does not proceed as currently
planned (see Chapter 7).
Figure 10.27 Electricity generation in Russia by type in the
New Policies Scenario
TWh
700
600
2009
2035
500
400
300
200
100
0
Gas Nuclear Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil
The Caspian region, mainly Kazakhstan, is another big coal consumer in Eastern Europe/
Eurasia. Nearly two-thirds of the Caspian’s primary use of coal is in power generation. In the
New Policies Scenario, coal demand is expected to grow modestly overall, mainly because
incremental energy needs are principally met by increased use of natural gas. The planned
construction of additional nuclear power, which is assumed to be commissioned towards
the end of the projection period, also limits the scope for increased use of coal for power
generation. A significant portion of increased electricity demand could also be met by
reducing losses in transmission and distribution, which are very large (IEA, 2010c).
10
OECD Asia Oceania
© OECD/IEA, 2011
Based on preliminary estimates for 2010, Japan – the world’s third-largest economy, the
largest coal importer and the fourth-largest coal user – accounted for almost half of coal
demand in the OECD Asia Oceania region. But this share drops in the New Policies Scenario
as a result of slow economic growth (in line with a declining population) and a
correspondingly modest rise in its electricity needs, as well as a major increase in power
supply from renewable sources and natural gas. Japan’s primary coal demand is projected to
drop by 20%, from 145 Mtce in 2009 to about 115 Mtce in 2035, a level last witnessed in the
Chapter 10 - Coal demand prospects 393