World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

Policies Scenario, 18% of global hard coal production is inter-regionally traded in 2035 and
in the Current Policies Scenario 22%, driven primarily by rising imports into non-OECD Asia.
The global share declines to 15% in the 450 Scenario, as the need to import coal is reduced
because indigenous resources are generally able to meet more of the lower level of demand.
The opposite is true in the Current Policies Scenario and, by 2035, global trade in volumetric
terms is more than three-times as big as in the 450 Scenario. As coking coal resources
are less abundant than steam coal in key projected demand centres and there are fewer
alternatives for coking coal, the share of global coking coal output which is inter-regionally
traded increases in all three scenarios.
Figure 11.1 Incremental coal production by scenario and region, 2009-2035
Current Policies
Scenario
450 Scenario New Policies
Scenario
China
Rest of world
China
Rest of world
China
Rest of world
-1 200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1 200 1 600
Mtce
China
United States
Australia
South Africa
Russia
Indonesia
India
Other
Box 11.2 WEO-2011 coal-supply modelling enhancements
For this year’s Outlook, the coal supply module in the IEA’s World Energy Model (WEM)
has been improved to incorporate more detail at the level of coal type and country,
and to provide for modelling for a wider range of factors, including resource availability,
production and transportation costs, international coal prices and infrastructure
bottlenecks. In our projections, the international coal prices assumed (and presented
for each scenario in Chapter 1) reflect our judgment as to the levels needed to bring
forward the investment required to ensure sufficient supply to meet projected demand
and international trade. More details on the IEA’s WEM coal supply module, as well as
the assumptions and methodologies used to project energy demand by fuel type in the
IEA’s WEM, can be found at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/model.asp.
© OECD/IEA, 2011
Trade patterns are expected to continue gravitating towards Asia and away from Atlantic
Basin markets. Within Asia, China and India are set to increase their dominance of trade,
as the importance of Japan and the European Union diminishes. The international coal
market will remain very sensitive to developments in China, which became a net importer
400 World Energy Outlook 2011 - OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS