World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

2009 to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario and reaches 630 bcm in 2035, 30 bcm higher than
the corresponding figure for 2035 in WEO-2010.
Figure 4.3 Incremental primary natural gas demand by region and sector
in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
China
Middle East
E. Europe/Eurasia
Other Asia
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
India
Lan America
Africa
OECD Asia Oceania
Power generaon
Other energy
sector
Industry
Buildings
Other*
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
bcm
*Includes agriculture, transport and non-energy use.
The largest share of global gas demand comes from the power sector, where gas use
for electricity generation rises to more than 1.9 tcm by 2035, at an annual rate of 1.8%
(Figure 4.4). The share of gas in global electricity generation increases slightly from 21%
today to 22% in 2035, while the share of coal declines from 40% in 2009 to 33% in 2035 and
the share of oil falls from 5% to 1% over the same period. After power generation, the next
largest consumption of gas in 2035 is in buildings, primarily for space and water heating;
70% of gas demand in the buildings sector currently comes from OECD countries. Global
consumption of gas in buildings grows more slowly over the projection period than in other
major end-use sectors. Demand growth is quicker in industry, where gas is used mainly for
the production of steam for mechanical energy and supplying the heat needed to produce
materials and commodities. If available, gas can be an attractive choice for industrial
processes, since it is easy to handle, more efficient and has fewer adverse environmental
impacts than other fossil fuels. Gas use in industry grows from 535 bcm in 2009 to 890 bcm
in 2035, with petrochemicals, iron and steel, and non-metallic minerals sub-sectors such as
cement, taking the largest shares.
© OECD/IEA, 2011
At a global level, gas does not currently compete strongly in all markets or in all sectors, but
it is making inroads. From a low base, gas use in road transportation is projected to increase
more quickly than in any other sector, at an average rate of 5.3% per year in the New Policies
Scenario. This is at present a relatively under-developed market for natural gas: more than
70% of the world stock of natural gas vehicles is in only five countries: Pakistan, Argentina,
Iran, Brazil and India. Although natural gas in transportation typically brings considerable
fuel-cost savings and emissions reductions, greater use has usually been held back by the
limited availability of refuelling infrastructure. We project natural gas consumption in road
transportation will quadruple to more than 80 bcm by 2035; even so, this is still only 3% of
the total energy used for road transportation.
160 World Energy Outlook 2011 - GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS