World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

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Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne, Germany; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); Ministère de l’écologie, du développement durable, des transports et du logement, France; Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands; Ministry of Energy, Russian Federation; Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway; Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD); Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; Peabody Energy; Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea; Japan Gas Association, Japan; Schlumberger; Shell; Shenhua Group; Statoil; Toyota Motor Corporation; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Many international experts provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work and reviewed early drafts of each chapter. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Saleh Abdurrahman Ali Aissaoui Marco Arcelli Gabriela Elizondo Azuela Pepukaye Bardouille Andrew Barfour Andrew Barnett Yuriy Baron Paul Baruya Igor Bashmakov Nicolas Bauer Georg Bäuml Johannes Baur Nazim Bayraktar Chris Beaton Carmen Becerril Rachid Bencherif Kamel Bennaceur Bruno Bensasson Mikul Bhatia Sankar Bhattacharya National Energy Council of Indonesia APICORP Enel World Bank International Finance Corporation, United States Institution of Engineers, Ghana The Policy Practice, United Kingdom Ministry of Energy, Russian Federation IEA Clean Coal Centre, United Kingdom Centre for Energy Efficiency, Russian Federation Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Volkswagen European Commission Energy Market Regulatory Agency, EPDK, Turkey International Institute for Sustainable Development, Switzerland Acciona Energia OPEC Fund for International Development Schlumberger GDF Suez World Bank Monash University, Australia 6 World Energy Outlook 2011
© OECD/IEA, 2011 Alexey Biteryakov Roberto Bocca Jean-Paul Bouttes Albert Bressand Nigel Bruce Peter Brun Michael Buffier David Cachot Guy Caruso Milton Catelin Sharat Chand Chris Charles Hela Cheikhrouhou Elisabeth Clemens Ben Clements Janusz Cofala Dean Cooper Alan Copeland Hans Daniels Christian De Gromard Michel Deelen Jos Delbeke Carmine Difiglio Mark Dominik Gina Downes Józef Dubinski Mohamed El-Ashry Kari Espegren Acknowledgements GazpromExport World Economic Forum EdF Columbia School of International and Public Affairs, United States World Health Organization, Switzerland Vestas Xstrata Coal Trafigura Beheer B.V. Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States World Coal Association The Energy and Resources Institute, India International Institute for Sustainable Development, Switzerland African Development Bank Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation International Monetary Fund International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria United Nations Environment Programme Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, Australia Alpha Natural Resources, United States Agence Française de Developpement Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands European Commission Department of Energy, United States Eskom Central Mining Institute, Poland UN Foundation Institute for Energy Technology, Norway 7
Page 1 and 2: Please note that this PDF is subjec
Page 3 and 4: WORLD ENERGY 2 0 11 OUTLOOK
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD It is the job of governmen
Page 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS © OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 11 and 12: © OECD/IEA, 2011 James Jensen Jan-
Page 13 and 14: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Jeff Piper Oleg P
Page 15 and 16: Liu Xiaoli Vitaly Yermakov Shigehir
Page 17 and 18: CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 1
Page 19 and 20: Trade 136 Trends in oil and gas pro
Page 21 and 22: 9 Implications of Russia’s energy
Page 23 and 24: Electricity access - financing on-g
Page 25 and 26: 3.5 Average annual change in transp
Page 27 and 28: 5.19 Renewables grid integration co
Page 29 and 30: 8.13 Changes in Russian natural gas
Page 31 and 32: 11.14 Cumulative coal-supply invest
Page 33 and 34: List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERG
Page 35 and 36: 10.5 CO 2 emissions from coal combu
Page 37 and 38: 8.5 The “Northern Route” to mar
Page 39 and 40: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 41 and 42: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “If we don’t
Page 43 and 44: Rising transport demand and upstrea
Page 45 and 46: Treading water or full steam ahead
Page 47 and 48: Achieving energy for all will not c
Page 49 and 50: PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PREFACE
Page 51 and 52: CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FR
Page 53 and 54: East and North Africa, a region tha
Page 55 and 56: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 1 - Conte
Page 57 and 58: The New Policies Scenario should no
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on welfare programmes. While this i
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6.8 billion in 2009 to around 8.6 b
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Energy prices The evolution of ener
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Natural gas prices Historically, na
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Figure 1.2 Ratio of average natura
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In the 450 Scenar
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CHAPTER 2 ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 203
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In the 450 Scenario, global energy
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Figure 2.4 World energy-related CO
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Box 2.1 The impact of lower near-t
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 What ar
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Figure 2.7 Shares of energy source
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of the total in 2035, the absolute
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In Latin America,
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adoption of hybrids (32% of passeng
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Figure 2.12 Incremental energy dem
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Figure 2.14 Incremental world ener
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production continue to clarify the
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stabilising thereafter, to settle a
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The answer will depend on China’s
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investment needs are not as high, b
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Energy-related emissions Greenhouse
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 2 - Energ
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CHAPTER 3 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK Will i
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the assumed higher GDP growth, howe
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Policies Scenario, OECD primary dem
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Chapter 13 for a discussion of ener
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if large-scale projects were succes
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Passenger light-duty vehicles Passe
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countries own a car today, while av
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Box 3.1 The future of car making T
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wait-and-see strategy in a still na
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eserves additions amounted to 29 bi
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Figure 3.15 World oil production i
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 By country, Iraq
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in production from older fields. Ru
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States (US DOE/EIA, 2011a). Of cour
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Europe’s production decline is we
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have acknowledged that the target l
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 this potential wi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3 - Oil m
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and most of the easily accessible o
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egions where international oil comp
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Trends in upstream spending differ
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Impact of deferred upstream investm
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good by other regions. Higher oil a
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atios of gas and coal prices to oil
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Oil demand falls much less in volum
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than offset by higher oil prices (a
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CHAPTER 4 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOO
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decreases through the projection pe
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Middle East (included in “other e
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Figure 4.4 Primary natural gas dem
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Table 4.3 Primary natural gas prod
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Table 4.4 Primary natural gas prod
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production growth in Iran is likely
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projections of the New Policies Sce
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of additional unconventional gas su
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SPOTLIGHT Do all roads lead to a Go
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CHAPTER 5 POWER AND RENEWABLES OUTL
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Around 80% of the growth in electri
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Figure 5.2 Share of world electric
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Figure 5.4 Incremental global coal
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driving the growth in this technolo
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wind power producer. Generation fro
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In OECD countries, the reduction in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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Box 5.1 Costs of integrating varia
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of renewables can also improve capa
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Focus on T&D infrastructure Robust
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years and this is set to continue.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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total system integration costs (see
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systems, smart grids can also incre
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CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 45
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Box 6.1 What is special about 2°C
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 was driven by eco
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Table 6.1 World anthropogenic gree
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over 6 000 terawatt hours (TWh) in
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Efficiency policies are by far the
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Union in the 450 Scenario). China a
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SPOTLIGHT The International Year of
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The power generation sector plays a
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 6 - Clima
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the total). 7 Refurbishment of buil
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which by 2035 are $42/tonne, or 38%
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Implications of delayed action This
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cumulative budgeted emissions of th
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of its technical lifetime before 20
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the case for transport, however, th
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Figure 6.17 Potential CO 2 emissio
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example, it would require an averag
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Figure 6.19 Change in global energ
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PART B OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY P
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ENERGY P
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(Urengoy and Yamburg) that have mad
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Figure 7.2 Energy production in Ru
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Trends in policies and governance T
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and those in Russian strategy docum
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Another target adopted by the Russi
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Figure 7.4 Total energy costs as a
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accounts for a significant share (F
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stricter building codes, are consid
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Figure 7.9 Primary energy savings
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this decline is projected to contin
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The current contribution of non-fos
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energy economy and the government c
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Figure 7.15 Age profile of install
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Reform efforts directed at the elec
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difficult to assess with any accura
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energy demand in the transport sect
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at around 20 kilogrammes of oil equ
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In the New Policies Scenario, polic
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN RESOURCES AND SUP
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Figure 8.2 Russian oil balance in
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Russian industrial groups (and ther
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subsequent updates, 6 IEA analysis
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Our USGS-based estimates have been
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9.6 mb/d throughout the period to 2
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incentives for companies to invest
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Production in Eastern Siberia is pr
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Estimating decline rates at existin
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Natural gas Resources Proven reserv
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ecoverable resources suggest, Russi
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 The las
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Figure 8.13 Changes in Russian nat
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Flaring The rate of utilisation of
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Box 8.5 The “Northern Route” t
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information about project developme
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the Kansko-Achinsk basin and Easter
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not been affected by any change of
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Russia has significant uranium reso
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obstacle, as discussed for the coal
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The adoption of renewable technolog
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CHAPTER 9 IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA’
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Figure 9.1 Structure of Russian ex
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Taken together, our assumption for
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in infrastructure for liquefied nat
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in the Middle East (see Chapter 3).
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There is similar evidence in the oi
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with the overall aim to decrease th
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Table 9.1 Main gas trade flows fro
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At the same time, the position of R
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Policies Scenario, so that they are
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Comparing this Outlook with Russian
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PART C OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS PRE
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CHAPTER 10 COAL DEMAND PROSPECTS Tr
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Box 10.1 A decade of booming coal
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the imposition of a carbon price an
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Table 10.3 Summary of the main dri
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Figure 10.5 World crude steel prod
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under $200/tonne in nominal terms b
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Box 10.3 Coal-fired power generati
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The projections described above, an
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Table 10.4 Levelised electricity g
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Fuel choice in industry Coal has di
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ange of capital costs only for capa
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In the 450 Scenario, OECD coal dema
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 PCC plants, they
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Figure 10.16 Coal-fired generating
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coal demand rebounds in the short t
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energy intensity and carbon intensi
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Figure 10.20 New additions of powe
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 around 85% of the
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Figure 10.24 Coal-fired generating
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In the New Policies Scenario, coal
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over the projection period, as the
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urning for power generation. Load f
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CHAPTER 11 COAL SUPPLY AND INVESTME
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Table 11.1 Coal* production by typ
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in 2009 (Figure 11.2). Marginal cha
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Just under three-quarters, or nearl
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generally risen much less than inte
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and the United States have moved up
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Underground mining methods (longwal
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near the coast. Furthermore, bottle
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capacity in the next two to four ye
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exemptions and credits, grants for
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coal derivatives, which together al
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Table 11.6 Key figures for the 30
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Trade prospects In the New Policies
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Colombia, along with new entrants s
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freight, to connect the coal-fields
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monopoly, which is able to extract
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the west of China, together with in
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the past few years, especially of c
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Indonesian and South African steam
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coal sold at the mine-mouth. The co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 rates, total coal
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their markets. Additionally, over t
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Figure 11.25 Coal production in So
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Figure 11.26 Har
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PART D SPECIAL TOPICS PREFACE Part
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CHAPTER 12 THE IMPLICATIONS OF LESS
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On the basis of a necessarily arbit
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of the construction starts in 2010,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 SPOTLIGHT How did
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 the country’s 5
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Our projections of future nuclear p
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projected in the New Policies Scena
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Figure 12.4 Power generation by fu
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period 2011 to 2035 are higher by 1
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In short, to the extent that energy
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other generating options because of
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CHAPTER 13 ENERGY FOR ALL Financing
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 International con
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Table 13.1 People without access t
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Box 13.2 Measuring investment in m
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In the New Policies Scenario, aroun
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 13 - Ener
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significant progress in establishin
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most suitable option for all urban
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In the Energy for All Case, hydropo
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additional investment of $20 billio
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As well as the economic development
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to pay. In these areas, the share o
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Electricity access - financing mini
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y entrepreneurs providing solar por
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The government, through a national
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Multilateral and bilateral developm
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generation at an investment cost of
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including to end-users, to generate
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to be sufficiently expert regarding
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CHAPTER 14 DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY S
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G-20 and APEC leaders in 2009 and 2
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availability and foreign currency e
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subsidies, which may subsidise part
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Figure 14.3 Economic cost of fossi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 14 - Deve
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In practice, the poor capture only
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that would follow from subsidy remo
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SPOTLIGHT Are the G-20 and APEC com
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lessens the burden of the rising co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 While the return
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Measuring renewable-energy subsidie
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grow considerably in non-OECD count
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exploited earlier, but there are ex
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 in the United Sta
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As depicted in the 450 Scenario, mo
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lowest in Japan, due partly to elec
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 ANNEXES
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR SCENARIO PROJECT
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 World: Current Po
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World: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD: Current Pol
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OECD: Current Policies and 450 Scen
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Americas: Cu
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OECD Americas: Current Policies and
Page 559 and 560:
© OECD/IEA, 2011 United States: Cu
Page 561 and 562:
United States: Current Policies and
Page 563 and 564:
© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Europe: Curr
Page 565 and 566:
OECD Europe: Current Policies and 4
Page 567 and 568:
© OECD/IEA, 2011 European Union: C
Page 569 and 570:
European Union: Current Policies an
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Asia Oceania
Page 573 and 574:
OECD Asia Oceania: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Japan: Current Po
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Japan: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD: Current
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Non-OECD: Current Policies and 450
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 E. Europe/Eurasia
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E. Europe/Eurasia: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Russia: Current P
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Russia: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD Asia: Cu
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Non-OECD Asia: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 China: Current Po
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China: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 India: Current Po
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India: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Middle East: Curr
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Middle East: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Africa: Current P
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Africa: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Latin America: Cu
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Latin America: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Brazil: Current P
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Brazil: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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ANNEX B POLICIES AND MEASURES BY SC
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The specific policies adopted for d
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Annex B - Policie
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Page 627 and 628:
Page 629 and 630:
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ANNEX C UNITS, DEFINITIONS, REGIONA
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Definitions Advan
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Coking coal Coking coal is a type o
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departure and port of arrival, and
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manufacturing and mining), transpor
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Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, B
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 CNG compressed na
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PSA PV RD&D RDD&D SAGD SCO SO 2 SRM
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ANNEX D REFERENCES PART A: Global e
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 O&GJ (Oil and Gas
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 — (2011a), East
Page 653 and 654:
RosHydroMet (2011), Report on Clima
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Popel, O., et al.
Page 657 and 658:
© OECD/IEA, 2011 Morse, R. and G.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 GPOBA (Global Par
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IEA, OECD (Organisaon for Economic
Page 663 and 664:
© OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 665 and 666:
© OECD/IEA, 2011
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