World Energy Outlook 2011.pdf - Thomas Piketty

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. © OECD/IEA, 2011 International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France www.iea.org Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. IEA member countries:
FOREWORD It is the job of governments to take the decisions that will deliver a secure and sustainable energy future. They can make wise decisions only if they are well-informed and advised. That is the job of bodies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which it has been my privilege to lead since September 2011. The World Energy Outlook (WEO) team, under the Agency’s Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, has again done an outstanding job in WEO-2011 to underpin sound energy decision making. With the invaluable help of many global experts inside and outside the Agency, the team has given us a wealth of current energy information, analysis and perspectives on the future. For example, we find: what it will cost to bring modern energy to every citizen of the world by 2030 and how to finance it; that, provided governments honour their existing intentions, renewable energy is set to provide half the new power generating capacity required between now and 2035; that, by virtue of their size and distribution, natural gas resources contribute encouragingly to future energy security, casting a golden glow over the outlook for natural gas; how oil markets will be shaped by increasing demand for mobility and rising upstream costs – and the consequences of any shortfall of investment in the Middle East and North Africa; what would have to be done (and whether that is realistic) if the nuclear component of future energy supply were to be halved, or if the availability of carbon capture and storage technology slipped by ten years; the extent of the overwhelming dominance of China in global energy in 25 years time and the global significance of the choices China makes to meet its needs; and how much energy Russia can save simply by matching the energy efficiency standards of OECD countries and how that would serve both Russia’s national objectives and the interests of global energy supply. © OECD/IEA, 2011 As a former minister, my background is that of a politician. My mission at the IEA is to bridge the divide between analysts and politicians so that the right energy policy decisions are made by governments across the world, both members and non-members of the IEA alike. The Agency will not aspire to determine those decisions which lie outside its area of executive responsibility for its members’ energy security. But I will push the remit to identify the decisions which others need, or which would be wise, to adopt. The WEO is an invaluable tool to this end. Foreword 3
Page 1 and 2: Please note that this PDF is subjec
Page 3: WORLD ENERGY 2 0 11 OUTLOOK
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS © OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 9 and 10: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Alexey Biteryakov
Page 11 and 12: © OECD/IEA, 2011 James Jensen Jan-
Page 13 and 14: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Jeff Piper Oleg P
Page 15 and 16: Liu Xiaoli Vitaly Yermakov Shigehir
Page 17 and 18: CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 1
Page 19 and 20: Trade 136 Trends in oil and gas pro
Page 21 and 22: 9 Implications of Russia’s energy
Page 23 and 24: Electricity access - financing on-g
Page 25 and 26: 3.5 Average annual change in transp
Page 27 and 28: 5.19 Renewables grid integration co
Page 29 and 30: 8.13 Changes in Russian natural gas
Page 31 and 32: 11.14 Cumulative coal-supply invest
Page 33 and 34: List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERG
Page 35 and 36: 10.5 CO 2 emissions from coal combu
Page 37 and 38: 8.5 The “Northern Route” to mar
Page 39 and 40: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 41 and 42: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “If we don’t
Page 43 and 44: Rising transport demand and upstrea
Page 45 and 46: Treading water or full steam ahead
Page 47 and 48: Achieving energy for all will not c
Page 49 and 50: PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PREFACE
Page 51 and 52: CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FR
Page 53 and 54: East and North Africa, a region tha
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 1 - Conte
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The New Policies Scenario should no
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on welfare programmes. While this i
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6.8 billion in 2009 to around 8.6 b
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Energy prices The evolution of ener
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Natural gas prices Historically, na
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Figure 1.2 Ratio of average natura
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In the 450 Scenar
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CHAPTER 2 ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 203
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In the 450 Scenario, global energy
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Figure 2.4 World energy-related CO
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Box 2.1 The impact of lower near-t
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 What ar
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Figure 2.7 Shares of energy source
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of the total in 2035, the absolute
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In Latin America,
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adoption of hybrids (32% of passeng
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Figure 2.12 Incremental energy dem
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Figure 2.14 Incremental world ener
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production continue to clarify the
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stabilising thereafter, to settle a
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The answer will depend on China’s
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investment needs are not as high, b
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Energy-related emissions Greenhouse
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 2 - Energ
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CHAPTER 3 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK Will i
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the assumed higher GDP growth, howe
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Policies Scenario, OECD primary dem
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Chapter 13 for a discussion of ener
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if large-scale projects were succes
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Passenger light-duty vehicles Passe
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countries own a car today, while av
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Box 3.1 The future of car making T
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wait-and-see strategy in a still na
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eserves additions amounted to 29 bi
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Figure 3.15 World oil production i
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 By country, Iraq
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in production from older fields. Ru
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States (US DOE/EIA, 2011a). Of cour
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Europe’s production decline is we
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have acknowledged that the target l
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 this potential wi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3 - Oil m
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and most of the easily accessible o
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egions where international oil comp
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Trends in upstream spending differ
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Impact of deferred upstream investm
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good by other regions. Higher oil a
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atios of gas and coal prices to oil
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Oil demand falls much less in volum
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than offset by higher oil prices (a
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CHAPTER 4 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOO
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decreases through the projection pe
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Middle East (included in “other e
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Figure 4.4 Primary natural gas dem
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Table 4.3 Primary natural gas prod
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Table 4.4 Primary natural gas prod
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production growth in Iran is likely
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projections of the New Policies Sce
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of additional unconventional gas su
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SPOTLIGHT Do all roads lead to a Go
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CHAPTER 5 POWER AND RENEWABLES OUTL
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Around 80% of the growth in electri
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Figure 5.2 Share of world electric
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Figure 5.4 Incremental global coal
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driving the growth in this technolo
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wind power producer. Generation fro
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In OECD countries, the reduction in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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Box 5.1 Costs of integrating varia
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of renewables can also improve capa
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Focus on T&D infrastructure Robust
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years and this is set to continue.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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total system integration costs (see
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systems, smart grids can also incre
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CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 45
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Box 6.1 What is special about 2°C
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 was driven by eco
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Table 6.1 World anthropogenic gree
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over 6 000 terawatt hours (TWh) in
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Efficiency policies are by far the
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Union in the 450 Scenario). China a
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SPOTLIGHT The International Year of
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The power generation sector plays a
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 6 - Clima
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the total). 7 Refurbishment of buil
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which by 2035 are $42/tonne, or 38%
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Implications of delayed action This
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cumulative budgeted emissions of th
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of its technical lifetime before 20
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the case for transport, however, th
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Figure 6.17 Potential CO 2 emissio
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example, it would require an averag
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Figure 6.19 Change in global energ
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PART B OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY P
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ENERGY P
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(Urengoy and Yamburg) that have mad
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Figure 7.2 Energy production in Ru
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Trends in policies and governance T
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and those in Russian strategy docum
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Another target adopted by the Russi
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Figure 7.4 Total energy costs as a
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accounts for a significant share (F
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stricter building codes, are consid
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Figure 7.9 Primary energy savings
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this decline is projected to contin
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The current contribution of non-fos
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energy economy and the government c
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Figure 7.15 Age profile of install
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Reform efforts directed at the elec
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difficult to assess with any accura
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energy demand in the transport sect
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at around 20 kilogrammes of oil equ
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In the New Policies Scenario, polic
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN RESOURCES AND SUP
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Figure 8.2 Russian oil balance in
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Russian industrial groups (and ther
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subsequent updates, 6 IEA analysis
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Our USGS-based estimates have been
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9.6 mb/d throughout the period to 2
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incentives for companies to invest
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Production in Eastern Siberia is pr
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Estimating decline rates at existin
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Natural gas Resources Proven reserv
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ecoverable resources suggest, Russi
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 The las
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Figure 8.13 Changes in Russian nat
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Flaring The rate of utilisation of
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Box 8.5 The “Northern Route” t
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information about project developme
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the Kansko-Achinsk basin and Easter
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not been affected by any change of
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Russia has significant uranium reso
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obstacle, as discussed for the coal
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The adoption of renewable technolog
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CHAPTER 9 IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA’
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Figure 9.1 Structure of Russian ex
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Taken together, our assumption for
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in infrastructure for liquefied nat
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in the Middle East (see Chapter 3).
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There is similar evidence in the oi
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with the overall aim to decrease th
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Table 9.1 Main gas trade flows fro
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At the same time, the position of R
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Policies Scenario, so that they are
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Comparing this Outlook with Russian
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PART C OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS PRE
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CHAPTER 10 COAL DEMAND PROSPECTS Tr
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Box 10.1 A decade of booming coal
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the imposition of a carbon price an
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Table 10.3 Summary of the main dri
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Figure 10.5 World crude steel prod
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under $200/tonne in nominal terms b
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Box 10.3 Coal-fired power generati
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The projections described above, an
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Table 10.4 Levelised electricity g
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Fuel choice in industry Coal has di
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ange of capital costs only for capa
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In the 450 Scenario, OECD coal dema
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 PCC plants, they
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Figure 10.16 Coal-fired generating
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coal demand rebounds in the short t
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energy intensity and carbon intensi
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Figure 10.20 New additions of powe
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 around 85% of the
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Figure 10.24 Coal-fired generating
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In the New Policies Scenario, coal
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over the projection period, as the
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urning for power generation. Load f
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CHAPTER 11 COAL SUPPLY AND INVESTME
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Table 11.1 Coal* production by typ
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in 2009 (Figure 11.2). Marginal cha
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Just under three-quarters, or nearl
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generally risen much less than inte
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and the United States have moved up
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Underground mining methods (longwal
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near the coast. Furthermore, bottle
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capacity in the next two to four ye
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exemptions and credits, grants for
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coal derivatives, which together al
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Table 11.6 Key figures for the 30
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Trade prospects In the New Policies
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Colombia, along with new entrants s
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freight, to connect the coal-fields
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monopoly, which is able to extract
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the west of China, together with in
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the past few years, especially of c
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Indonesian and South African steam
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coal sold at the mine-mouth. The co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 rates, total coal
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their markets. Additionally, over t
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Figure 11.25 Coal production in So
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Figure 11.26 Har
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PART D SPECIAL TOPICS PREFACE Part
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CHAPTER 12 THE IMPLICATIONS OF LESS
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On the basis of a necessarily arbit
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of the construction starts in 2010,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 SPOTLIGHT How did
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 the country’s 5
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Our projections of future nuclear p
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projected in the New Policies Scena
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Figure 12.4 Power generation by fu
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period 2011 to 2035 are higher by 1
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In short, to the extent that energy
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other generating options because of
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CHAPTER 13 ENERGY FOR ALL Financing
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 International con
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Table 13.1 People without access t
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Box 13.2 Measuring investment in m
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In the New Policies Scenario, aroun
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 13 - Ener
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significant progress in establishin
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most suitable option for all urban
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In the Energy for All Case, hydropo
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additional investment of $20 billio
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As well as the economic development
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to pay. In these areas, the share o
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Electricity access - financing mini
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y entrepreneurs providing solar por
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The government, through a national
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Multilateral and bilateral developm
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generation at an investment cost of
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including to end-users, to generate
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to be sufficiently expert regarding
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CHAPTER 14 DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY S
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G-20 and APEC leaders in 2009 and 2
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availability and foreign currency e
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subsidies, which may subsidise part
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Figure 14.3 Economic cost of fossi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 14 - Deve
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In practice, the poor capture only
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that would follow from subsidy remo
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SPOTLIGHT Are the G-20 and APEC com
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lessens the burden of the rising co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 While the return
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Measuring renewable-energy subsidie
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grow considerably in non-OECD count
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exploited earlier, but there are ex
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 in the United Sta
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As depicted in the 450 Scenario, mo
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lowest in Japan, due partly to elec
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 ANNEXES
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR SCENARIO PROJECT
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 World: Current Po
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World: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD: Current Pol
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OECD: Current Policies and 450 Scen
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Americas: Cu
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OECD Americas: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 United States: Cu
Page 561 and 562:
United States: Current Policies and
Page 563 and 564:
© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Europe: Curr
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OECD Europe: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 European Union: C
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European Union: Current Policies an
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Asia Oceania
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OECD Asia Oceania: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Japan: Current Po
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Japan: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD: Current
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Non-OECD: Current Policies and 450
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 E. Europe/Eurasia
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E. Europe/Eurasia: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Russia: Current P
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Russia: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD Asia: Cu
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Non-OECD Asia: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 China: Current Po
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China: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 India: Current Po
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India: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Middle East: Curr
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Middle East: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Africa: Current P
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Africa: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Latin America: Cu
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Latin America: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Brazil: Current P
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Brazil: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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ANNEX B POLICIES AND MEASURES BY SC
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The specific policies adopted for d
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Annex B - Policie
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ANNEX C UNITS, DEFINITIONS, REGIONA
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Definitions Advan
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Coking coal Coking coal is a type o
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departure and port of arrival, and
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manufacturing and mining), transpor
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Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, B
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 CNG compressed na
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PSA PV RD&D RDD&D SAGD SCO SO 2 SRM
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ANNEX D REFERENCES PART A: Global e
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 O&GJ (Oil and Gas
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 — (2011a), East
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RosHydroMet (2011), Report on Clima
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Popel, O., et al.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Morse, R. and G.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 GPOBA (Global Par
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IEA, OECD (Organisaon for Economic
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© OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 665 and 666:
© OECD/IEA, 2011
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