Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek, and Hewitt's Creek Subwatershed Plan

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The Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek and Hewitt’s Creek Subwatershed Plan The groundwater and land use scenarios analysed within this study include: • Current conditions – current land use and groundwater use; • Future conditions – future land use and groundwater use; • 10-year drought scenario; • Climate change scenario Additional water budget efforts are currently underway within the Barrie study area. These include completion of a Tier Three Water Budget and Local Area Risk Assessment for any municipal water supply systems present within subwatersheds classified as having a moderate or significant potential for stress in the Tier Two Assessment. As part of this assessment, vulnerable areas are delineated for municipal drinking water systems, water quantity risks associated with these areas are estimated, and moderate or significant drinking water threats within these areas are identified. 4.3.2 Water Supply Estimation Water supply is the amount of water available at any given instant for use as a drinking water source, for recreational activities, or to support ecological functions. In surface water resources, available supply is considered to be a proportion of streamflow, which is monitored at a number of stations across the Lake Simcoe basin. Determination of surface water supply thus involves the interpolation of gauge data to the outlets of subwatersheds in gauged systems, and interpolation from similar subwatersheds for ungauged systems. Typically, surface water supply has been based on expected monthly flows (as determined through statistical analysis of observed flows or through surface water modelling). For groundwater, the available supply for a subwatershed is considered to be the sum of the recharge and subsurface inflows (lateral inflow or underflow in). The water supply component of the stress assessment was estimated using a numerical groundwater flow model developed for the South Georgian Bay West Lake Simcoe study area, which includes the Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek, and Hewitt’s Creek subwatersheds. This groundwater model incorporated the enhanced knowledge of the geologic surface and subsurface gained from the conceptual model discussed in the previous section. The model domain encompasses the Nottawasaga Valley and Severn Sound watersheds in their entirety as well as the western portion of the Lake Simcoe watershed. Additionally, the model was also built to extend to the areas beneath Georgian Bay and Kempenfelt Bay, resulting in a total coverage area of 5416 km 2 (AquaResource and Golder, 2010). The FEFLOW modelling code was selected for use because of its ability to simulate physical features, and follow naturally complex boundary conditions. This model runs very efficiently requiring fewer calculation points to achieve the same level of precision as with finite difference model codes. The model elements also have the ability to conform to the pronounced vertical variation of the hydrostratigraphic layers. The stable water table simulation the model performs allows for a more accurate depiction of the shallow subsurface, this allows the modeller to focus on conceptual issues rather than numerical issues. The water budgets and stress assessment are calculated using the estimated values for groundwater supply and reserve simulated in the numerical FEFLOW model. Water budgets and stress assessments are conducted to determine a subwatershed’s potential stress level, with the ultimate goal of sustaining a water supply. The parameters used in the water budget were simulated using the numerical FEFLOW model. This included simulations of groundwater recharge under steady state conditions, consumptive Chapter 4: Water Quantity – Surface and Groundwater 169
The Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek and Hewitt’s Creek Subwatershed Plan demand estimates determined from recorded pumping rates, groundwater discharge to streams, and the inter-basin transfer of groundwater. The results of the water budget are shown on Table 4-4. The value for groundwater recharge indicates how much recharge the subwatersheds were simulated to receive annually. The negative values for groundwater takings indicate that both Barrie Creeks and Hewitt’s Creek subwatershed are experiencing a net loss of water due to groundwater pumping. A negative value for groundwater discharge to streams indicates that flow is leaving the groundwater system and entering the surface water system. This is observed in both Barrie Creeks and Hewitt’s Creek subwatersheds. A positive value for inter-basin transfer indicates that the subwatershed is experiencing a net in-flux of groundwater. This is observed in the Barrie Creeks subwatershed. Conversely a negative net in-flux value indicates that a subwatershed is experiencing a net loss of groundwater flow. This is observed in Hewitt’s Creek subwatershed, where some of the groundwater flow is supporting the ecological health of adjacent subwatershed. The values in the water budget form the foundation for the stress assessment calculations. Chapter 4: Water Quantity – Surface and Groundwater 170
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Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek, and He
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Acknowledgements The Barrie Creeks,
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• East of the Barrie Creeks subwa
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Fish Habitat -Fish communities in t
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Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS
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3.5.4 Water Temperature - thermal d
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5.3.11 Climate Change 237 5.4 ASSES
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6.5.10 Improving data management 31
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LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1 Figure 1-
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Figure 2-34: Annual precipitation (
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CHAPTER 4 Figure 4-1: Hydrologic cy
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Figure 5-11: Pathways by which impe
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Figure 7-11: Riparian area with app
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Table 3-4: Surface water quality co
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CHAPTER 5 Table 5-1: Fish species c
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The Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek and
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Creek ANNE ST N BAYFIELD ST N LINE
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ANNE ST N BAYFIELD ST N LINE 1 S OR
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FERNDALE DR N ANNE ST N BAYFIELD ST
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FERNDALE DR N SUNNIDALE RD ANNE ST
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7.4 Urban interactions - land use,
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Figure 7-9: An urban landscape with
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7.5 In-stream interactions - activi
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Barrie Creeks, Lovers Creek, and Hewitt's Creek Subwatershed Plan

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