Download - Macro Research - Handelsbanken

Global currency and interest rate forecasts
28-Apr < 6 month < 12 month < 24 month < 36 month
ECB min bid rate 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.50
Federal funds 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 3.00
10 year, DEM 3.12 2.90 2.70 3.00 3.75
10 year, USD 2.90 2.70 2.50 3.50 4.00
10 year, JPY 1.42 1.15 1.25 1.75 2.00
EUR/USD 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.20 1.10
EUR/GBP 0.894 0.900 0.900 0.850 0.800
USD/JPY 95.98 108 110 120 120
Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets
GDP forecast, Sweden
Percentage change in 2000 prices
2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f
Household consumption 3.0 -0.2 -2.0 0.5 2.7
Public consumption 0.4 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.0
Fixed investment 7.5 3.5 -12.0 -6.0 2.5
Change in inventories inventoies ** 0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Exports of goods and services 5.8 1.7 -14.0 2.0 5.0
Imports of goods and services 9.4 3.0 -13.0 1.2 4.9
GDP 2.6 -0.2 -4.7 -0.2 2.4
GDP calendar adjusted 2.7 -0.6 -4.5 -0.5 2.5
*percent of GDP
Key ratios, Sweden
2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f
Wages* 3.3 4.3 2.9 2.1 2.2
CPI * 2.2 3.4 -0.4 0.2 1.0
CPIF * - - 1.7 0.5 1.0
Open unemployment (ILO), percent of labour force 6.1 6.2 9.0 11.5 12.0
Employment (ILO) 2.4 0.9 -3.4 -3.4 -0.3
Real disposable income* 3.6 3.3 0.5 -1.0 1.8
Savings ratio, percent of income 9.1 11.9 14.4 13.0 12.1
Current account, SEK bn 275 260 206 180 168
Current account, percent of GDP 9.0 8.2 6.7 5.8 5.3
Public sector financial savings, percent of GDP 3.8 2.5 -3.4 -4.8 -5.0
Government debt, percent of GDP 36.4 33.6 39.4 42.4 43.1
* percent change from previous year
Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets
Currency and interest rate forecasts
28-Apr < 6 month < 12 month < 24 month < 36 month
Repo rate, Sweden 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 2.50
10 year, Sweden 3.18 2.90 2.80 3.20 4.00
Spread, 10 year (SEK - DEM) 0.06 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.25
EUR/SEK 10.75 10.80 10.00 9.50 9.00
USD/SEK 8.26 8.64 8.33 7.92 8.18
Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets
48 April 28, 2009