ISSUE 70 : May/Jun - 1988 - Australian Defence Force Journal

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24 DEFENCE FORCE JOURNAL No. 70 May/June 88 1 -i Acceptability of Worth Value Figure 6. Diagrammatic Representation ot the Relative Worth of Alternatives A, B and C. Future Developments for MDSS In our example we illustrate the simplest of problem structures. However, in many cases it is necessary for the decision maker to make trade-offs of one factor for another. This will be possible in later versions of the MDSS. Defence problems are not ones which will be solved in a single pass and a few iterations may be needed to sort out levels in the hierarchy where the factors are not independent as was assumed in our example. Feedback loops are yet another factor in complex problems. All these will be considered in later versions of the MDSS which will guide a decision maker through the processes necessary to their problem solution. Summary We believe it is essential to capture and use the subjectivity inherent in most Defence decisions to give true regard to the military value of the dollars expended on operations and equipment. Justification of Defence decisions must be based on reasonable assessment which is both logical to the decision maker and the onlooker alike. The MDSS provides the tools necessary to handle subjectivity and it will help decision makers obtain repeatable and arguably correct decision syntheses. The MDSS allows them to use their own language to assess the relative worth of alternatives using a model based on an appropriate underlying compositional model. Decision makers and non-specialist analysts alike do not have the luxury of time to study Relative Worth of Alternative the large volume of theory that lies behind decision analysis. Design and development of an interactive MDSS specifically for the Defence environment therefore is a major step in aiding decision makers to reach reasonable assessments for Defence problems. W BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Zadeh, L. A. 'Outline of a New Approach lo the Analysis of Complex Systems and Decision Processes'. IEEE Transactions on Sys. Man and Cybernetics, SMC- 3 (1), 28-44 (1973). 2. Negoita, C. V. 'Fuzzy Systems', Abacus Press (1981). 3. Saaty, T. L. 'Decision Making for Leaders', Wadsworth (1982). 4. Galbraith, J. 'Designing Complex Organizations', Addison-Wesley (1973). 5. Goguen, J. A. 'Mathematical Representation of Hierarchically Organized Systems' in E. O. Attinger (ed.) 'Global System Dynamics', Krager (1970). 6. Pollatschek, M. A. 'Hierarchical Systems and Fuzzy- Set Theory', Kybernetes, 6, 147-152 (1977). 7. Buckley, J. J. 'Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis', Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 17, 233-247 (1985). 8. Zimmermann, H. J. 'Fuzzy Set Theory — and Its Applications', Kluwer-Nijholf (1985). 9. Carlsson, C. and Kochetkov, Y. (eds.). 'Theory and Practice of Multiple Criteria Decision Making', North- Holland (1983). 10. Chankong, V. and Haimes, Y.Y. 'Multiobjective Decision Making', North-Holland (1983). 11. Fandel, G. and Spronk, J. (eds.). 'Multiple Criteria Decision Methods and Applications', Springer-Verlag (1985). 12. Farquhar, P. H. 'A Survey of Multiattribute Utility Theory and Applications', TIMS Studies in Management Sciences, 6, 59-89 (1977). 13. Hansen, P. 'Essays and Surveys on Multiple Criteria Decision Making', Springer-Verlag (1983). 14. Keeney, R. and Raiffa, H. 'Decisions with Multiple Objectives', Wiley (1976). 15. Wendt, P. and Vlek, L. (eds.). 'Utility, Probability and Human Decision Making', Reidel (1975). 16. Zelaney, M. 'Multiple Criteria Decision Making', McGraw Hill (1982).
17. Alter, S. L. 'Decision Support Systems, Current Prac- 26. tice and Continuing Challenges', Addison Wesley (1980). 18. Bennett, J.L. (ed.). 'Building Decision Support Systems', Addison Wesley (1983). 27. 19. Humphreys, P., Svenson, O. and Vari, A. (eds.). 'Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes', North-Holland (1983). 28. 20. Grauer, M. and Wierzbicki, A. P. 'Interactive Decision Analysis', Springer (1984). 21. Sol, H. G. (ed.). 'Processes and Tools for Decision 29. Support Systems', North-Holland (1983). 22. Sprague, R. H. and Carlson, E. D. 'Building Effective 30. Decision Support Systems', Prentice-Hall (1982). 23. Cetron, M. J., et al. 'Technical Resource Methods', MIT Press (1969). 31. 24. Dockery, J.T. 'Theory of Effectiveness Measures', STC TM-729, SHAPE Technical Centre (1985). 25. Dockery, J. T. 'Why Not Fuzzy Measures of Effec- 32. tiveness', Signal, 171-176 (May 1986). HARNESSING MILITARY EXPERTISE 25 Veit, C. 1., Callero, M. and Rose, B. J. 'Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air-Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis,' Note N- 1831-AF, Rand (1982). Von Winterfeldt, D. and Fisher, G.W. 'Multi-Attribute Utility Theory: Models and Assessment Procedures', in Wendt and Vlek (1975). Eshragh, F. and Mamdani, E to Linguistic Approximation', 11, 501-519 (1979). H. 'A General Approach Int. J. Man-Mach. Stud., Wenstop, F. 'Quantitative Analysis with Linguistic Values', Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 4, 99-115 (1980). Zimmer, A. C. 'A Model for the Interpretation of Verbal Predictions', Int. J. Man-Mach. Stud., 20, 121- 132 (1984). Zimmer, A. C. 'Verbal vs. Numerical Processing', in Scholz, R. (ed.), 'Individual Decision Making under Uncertainty', North-Holland (1983). — Joint Services Publication (AS) 101, Part 1, Glossary (Feb. 1984). I Air Defence Gunners firing the Red Eye Anti-Aircraft Missile.
Page 1 and 2: * $ -\. AUSTRALIA .,
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Page 5 and 6: Australian Defence Studies Centre U
Page 7 and 8: The Management of Australia's Defen
Page 9 and 10: THE MANAGEMENT OF AUSTRALIA'S DEFEN
Page 17 and 18: Harnessing Military Expertise in De
Page 19 and 20: HARNESSING MILITARY EXPERTISE 17 e.
Page 21 and 22: HARNESSING MILITARY EXPERTISE 19 ba
Page 23 and 24: HARNESSING MILITARY EXPERTISE 21 OS
Page 25: OSA • HELP • SRES • SFAC * HE
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Page 31 and 32: eing enjoyable! The opportunities p
Page 33 and 34: PTT FITNESS OR FICTION 31 We need t
Page 35 and 36: A BORNEO JOURNEY 33 Australian High
Page 37 and 38: A BORNEO JOURNEY 35 liboxes dropped
Page 39 and 40: Australia's Reaction to the Threat
Page 41 and 42: AUSTRALIA'S REACTION TO THE THREAT
Page 43 and 44: AUSTRALIA'S REACTION TO THE THREAT
Page 45 and 46: Book Review LEST WE FORGET THE HIST
Page 47 and 48: BOOK REVIEW 45 soldier from the the
Page 49 and 50: BOOK REVIEW •7 I found this book

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