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Management’s Discussion (Continued)<br />
Property and casualty losses (Continued)<br />
BHRG (Continued)<br />
Other reinsurance reserves (approximately $11.9 billion as of December 31, 2013) consisted of a variety of traditional<br />
property and casualty coverages written primarily under excess-of-loss and quota-share treaties. Liabilities as of December 31,<br />
2013, included approximately $4.0 billion related to the 20% quota-share contract with Swiss Re, which is now in run-off.<br />
Reinsurance reserve amounts are generally based upon loss estimates reported by ceding companies and IBNR reserves that are<br />
primarily a function of reported losses from ceding companies and anticipated loss ratios established on a portfolio basis,<br />
supplemented by management’s judgment of the impact of major catastrophe events as they become known. Anticipated loss<br />
ratios are based upon management’s judgment considering the type of business covered, analysis of each ceding company’s loss<br />
history and evaluation of that portion of the underlying contracts underwritten by each ceding company, which are in turn ceded<br />
to BHRG. A range of reserve amounts as a result of changes in underlying assumptions is not prepared.<br />
Derivative contract liabilities<br />
Our Consolidated Balance Sheets include significant derivative contract liabilities that are measured at fair value. Our most<br />
significant derivative contract exposures relate to equity index put option contracts written between 2004 and 2008. These<br />
contracts were entered into in over-the-counter markets. Certain elements of the terms and conditions of these contracts are not<br />
standard and we are not required to post collateral under most of these contracts. Furthermore, there is no source of independent<br />
data available to us showing trading volume and actual prices of completed transactions. As a result, the values of these<br />
liabilities are based on valuation models that we believe would be used by market participants. Such models or other valuation<br />
techniques use inputs that are observable in the marketplace, while others are unobservable. Unobservable inputs require us to<br />
make certain projections and assumptions about the information that would be used by market participants in establishing<br />
prices. We believe that the fair values produced for long-duration options is inherently subjective. The values of contracts in an<br />
actual exchange are affected by market conditions and perceptions of the buyers and sellers. Actual values in an exchange may<br />
differ significantly from the values produced by any mathematical model.<br />
We determine the estimated fair value of equity index put option contracts using a Black-Scholes based option valuation<br />
model. Inputs to the model include the current index value, strike price, interest rate, dividend rate and contract expiration date.<br />
The weighted average interest and dividend rates used as of December 31, 2013 were 2.5% and 3.6%, respectively, and were<br />
approximately 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively, as of December 31, 2012. The interest rates as of December 31, 2013 and 2012<br />
were approximately 64 basis points and 95 basis points (on a weighted average basis), respectively, over benchmark interest<br />
rates and represented our estimate of our nonperformance risk. We believe that the most significant economic risks under these<br />
contracts relate to changes in the index value component and, to a lesser degree, the foreign currency component.<br />
The Black-Scholes based model also incorporates volatility estimates that measure potential price changes over time. Our<br />
contracts have an average remaining maturity of about 7 years. The weighted average volatility used as of December 31, 2013<br />
was approximately 20.7%, compared to 20.9% as of December 31, 2012. The weighted average volatilities are based on the<br />
volatility input for each equity index put option contract weighted by the notional value of each equity index put option contract<br />
as compared to the aggregate notional value of all equity index put option contracts. The volatility input for each equity index<br />
put option contract reflects our expectation of future price volatility. The impact on fair value as of December 31, 2013<br />
($4.7 billion) from changes in the volatility assumption is summarized in the table that follows. Dollars are in millions.<br />
Hypothetical change in volatility (percentage points)<br />
Hypothetical fair value<br />
Increase 2 percentage points .............................................................. $5,067<br />
Increase 4 percentage points .............................................................. 5,479<br />
Decrease 2 percentage points .............................................................. 4,284<br />
Decrease 4 percentage points .............................................................. 3,923<br />
For several years, we also have had exposures relating to a number of credit default contracts written involving corporate<br />
and state/municipality issuers. During 2013, all credit default contracts involving corporate issuers expired and at December 31,<br />
2013, our remaining exposures relate to state/municipality exposures which begin to expire in 2019. The fair values of our state/<br />
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