Risk Analysis of Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm, 2008. - VTT

Risk Analysis for Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm
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5 Retrospective Risk Assessment of the
Bornholm Gat Traffic Separation Scheme
5.1 Hazard identification (FSA step 1)
The hazard identification was performed during Workshop I. Its result is displayed
as a list in Appendix F.
It is common to rank hazards in a qualitative way in order to determine, which
of them deserve quantitative investigation. However, it turned out that all significant
hazards are covered by the accident models considered in the present
study (compare chapter 4). Therefore, ranking is regarded as being futile in the
present context.
5.2 Risk control options (FSA step 3)
The risk control measure, i.e. the introduction of a traffic separation scheme in
the Bornholmsgat has been introduced prior to this analysis. The present analysis
is meant to assess its effectiveness in terms of safety and cost-benefit effects.
5.3 Comparative risk assessment (FSA step 2 and 4)
This section compares the situation in July-December 2005 (no traffic separation)
to the situation in July-December 2006 (traffic separation scheme implemented).
All numbers are based on the number of accidents expected for the
observed traffic patterns.
These frequencies are relatively small, i.e. less than one event per year for the
different accident types. Therefore, comparing with the actual events during
July-December 2005 and July-December 2006 is not an option.
In /IMO FSA/, risk assessment and cost-benefit assessment are regarded as two
separate steps. This is necessary, because accident costs (expected costs) are
usually not the only costs. A risk-reduction measure usually also leads to direct
costs that occur independently of any accident, such as implementation costs,
changes in ship operation costs due to shorter/longer routes etc.
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