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Risk Analysis of Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm, 2008. - VTT

Risk Analysis of Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm, 2008. - VTT

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<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> for <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Traffic</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Area</strong> <strong>around</strong> <strong>Bornholm</strong><br />

7<br />

2 Background<br />

2.1 Motivation<br />

In 2006, a new traffic separation scheme was <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> waters between<br />

<strong>the</strong> Danish island <strong>of</strong> <strong>Bornholm</strong> and <strong>the</strong> Swedish ma<strong>in</strong>land (also known as <strong>Bornholm</strong>sgat).<br />

This scheme assigns separate lanes to each traffic direction and<br />

regulates <strong>the</strong> route geometry. The <strong>Bornholm</strong>sgat is used by <strong>the</strong> predom<strong>in</strong>ant<br />

part <strong>of</strong> all traffic between <strong>the</strong> Baltic <strong>Sea</strong> and <strong>the</strong> North <strong>Sea</strong> and is <strong>the</strong>refore<br />

heavily frequented.<br />

The first motivation <strong>of</strong> this report is to compare <strong>the</strong> situation before and after<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>troduction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> traffic separation scheme. To this purpose, a comparative<br />

assessment is to <strong>in</strong>vestigate <strong>the</strong> change <strong>in</strong> risk. The focus is on risk to human<br />

life, environment and assets due to ship accidents.<br />

Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong>re is an ongo<strong>in</strong>g issue concern<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> less <strong>in</strong>tensive, but never<strong>the</strong>less<br />

significant traffic from <strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>ast Baltic <strong>Sea</strong>. This traffic orig<strong>in</strong>ates<br />

ma<strong>in</strong>ly from <strong>the</strong> ports <strong>of</strong> Gdańsk, Kal<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>grad and Klaipėda. In case <strong>of</strong> an oil<br />

spillage, sensitive ecosystems and recreational areas <strong>in</strong> Denmark, Sweden and<br />

Poland would possibly be affected.<br />

Here, <strong>the</strong> motivation is to evaluate <strong>the</strong> sensibility <strong>of</strong> a possible future traffic diversion.<br />

Aga<strong>in</strong>, a comparative risk assessment is to <strong>in</strong>vestigate <strong>the</strong> effect upon<br />

risk. In this case, <strong>the</strong> status quo needs to be compared to <strong>the</strong> situation that could<br />

be expected <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future after an eventual sea route has been <strong>in</strong>troduced.<br />

2.2 Target group<br />

The study aims to provide decision support to <strong>the</strong> Danish Maritime Authority<br />

(Søfartsstyrelsen), to <strong>the</strong> Royal Danish Adm<strong>in</strong>istration <strong>of</strong> Navigation and Hydrography<br />

(Farvandsvæsenet) and to <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>volved Baltic <strong>Sea</strong> country authorities<br />

represented <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Hels<strong>in</strong>ki Commission (HELCOM).<br />

2.3 <strong>Risk</strong> concept<br />

In <strong>the</strong> present study, risk is understood accord<strong>in</strong>g to its classical def<strong>in</strong>ition <strong>in</strong><br />

decision <strong>the</strong>ory:<br />

P:\65775A\3_Pdoc\DOC\P-65775A ma<strong>in</strong> report f<strong>in</strong>al corr prepared for PDF.DOC<br />

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