Special Edition-07.pdf - Lahore School of Economics

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154 Naheed Zia Khan world dominated by trade, the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) prevail. These rules are the outcome of the Uruguay Round (UR) of trade talks. The UR began in 1986 and culminated in converting the ‘interim’ Secretariat of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) into the WTO. The UR was the eighth round of GATT and it included agriculture and services in the trade talks for the first time. 1 With 150 member countries in January 2007, the WTO enforces the 1993 UR agreement; the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), the agreement on Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) and Trade Related Investment Measures (TRIMs). The members are required to abide by the WTO rules which are prolific, running into thousands of pages. Following an aborted attempt in Seattle in late 1999, the Ministerial Meeting of the WTO in Doha, the capital city of Qatar, launched the next comprehensive round of multilateral trade negotiations in November 2001. The Doha Round aims at reducing tariffs, subsidies and other barriers to global commerce in order to boost progress, apparently, in the underdeveloped parts of the world. Like its predecessor, the UR, agricultural subsidies remain the sticking point also in the Doha Round of trade talks, causing the suspension of the process in July 2006, as the multilateral negotiation on this thorny issue failed to reach agreement even after a five-year effort. There is a broad range of issues that are of important concern for economic reforms in developing countries such as Pakistan. One key issue relates to the extent to which they have so far benefited from the UR reforms, most notably the commitments to liberalize trade in agriculture. In the wake of the break down of the trade talks in July 2006, this study takes a hard look at developments in agricultural policies since the UR agreement. The analysis is divided into four parts. Part 1 discusses the importance of agriculture in Pakistan’s economy relative to the economies of selected Asian and African countries. Part II presents the estimates, found in the literature, of the welfare gains from removing trade barriers globally. Pakistan’s performance in reforming its agricultural sector is also discussed in this part. Part III analyzes the size and significance of the developed countries’ farm subsidies in the Post-UR agreement period. Finally, before presenting the conclusion of this study, Part IV discusses the factors relating to agricultural subsidies hindering the reform efforts in developing countries. Part I 1 The earlier Rounds were Geneva 1947; Annecy 1948; Torquay 1950; Geneva 1956; Dillon 1960-61; Kennedy 1964-67; and Tokyo 1973-79.
Implications for Economic Reforms in Pakistan and other Southern Countries 155 During the first reform period, Pakistan’s economic performance compared favorably with most of its Asian counterparts. This is supported by the last century’s scenario presented in Table-1. The figures listed in Tables-1 show that Pakistan fared well in comparison against the averages of low income/ middle income countries and the world, and also with the individual countries included in the list. However, many of its counterparts, both in Asia and Africa, are much ahead on the literacy front where Pakistan lags behind even the low income countries and markedly behind the middle income countries. Table-1: Economic and Social Indicators of Selected Developing Countries (Asia and Africa) Category National Income (growth rate) 1965-99 (% per annum) GDP GDP Per Capita Life Expectancy (years) Social Indicators 1999 Adult Illiteracy Rate (%) 1. Country Bangladesh 3.8 1.3 61 59 Egypt 5.6 3.3 67 45 Kenya 4.7 1.2 48 29 India 4.6 2.4 63 44 Indonesia 6.9 4.8 66 5 Iran 1.7 -1.0 71 24 Malaysia 7.0 4.3 72 13 Mauritius 5.2 3.9 71 16 Oman 9.5 5.0 73 30 Pakistan 5.6 2.7 63 55 Singapore 8.3 6.3 78 8 South Africa 2.3 0.0 48 15 Sri Lanka 4.6 3.0 73 9 Thailand 7.3 5.1 69 5 2. Country Group Low Income 4.1 1.8 59 39 Middle Income 4.2 2.4 70 15 3. World 3.3 1.6 66 n.a. Source: World Bank (2001a).
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Special Edition ISSN 1811-5438 THE
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100 Muhammad Arshad Khan and Sajawa
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11. All references used in the text
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The Lahore School of Economics The
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