Special Edition-07.pdf - Lahore School of Economics

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62 Shahid Kardar primary surplus of 1.7% of GDP in FY04 has become a deficit of around 0.5% of GDP in FY06) will be required over the medium-term. However, the domestic and external debt situation, despite the high debt to revenue and debt to export ratios (essentially because of low revenues and exports), will remain favorable, as will the interest rate and exchange rate risk (again despite the rupee being overvalued, by 10% according to the IMF and around 18% by the World Bank compared with the official admission of a misalignment by only 2-4%). The State Bank should clearly spell out its monetary policy and related objectives today to achieve its inflation target of around 5% over the next 8-12 months. There is a need to not only to raise public savings through higher revenues and better expenditure control, there is also a need to diversify sources of borrowing, in particular, as argued above, to improve the mix of short-term and long-term borrowings. Moreover, unfortunately even when it decided to resort to long-term non-bank borrowings, the government chose to do so through NSS instruments by allowing institutional investors to opt for NSS, reversing an earlier decision that had closed this option for them. This has adversely affected the development of a capital market for longterm debt, critically required to evolve a robust housing finance system and draw private sector investment into long gestation infrastructure projects. In conclusion I would like to emphasize that apart from macroeconomic stability, governance mechanisms, institutions and the institutional environment such as the rule of law, societal norms and values, work ethics, enforcement and related costs of property and contractual rights are important for facilitating economic growth and influencing economic efficiency. Ratio to GDP FY02 FY06 Investment 16.8% 20% National savings 18.6% 16.1% Domestic Savings 17.0% 14.7%
Monetary and Fiscal Policies 63 Tax Revenues 10.9 10.5 Total Revenues 14.2 14 Expenditure 18.5 18.2 Development Expenditure 2.9 4.2 Current Expenditure 15.9 13.6 Overall Deficit 4.3 4.2 Growth % FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Monetary (M2) 15.4 18.0 19.6 19.3 15.2 Private Credit 4.8 18.9 29.8 34.4 23.5 Sources: IMF, December 2006 and State Bank Annual Report, 2005/06 30 Growth in Money Supply and Domestic Credit 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 MSG DCG
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Special Edition ISSN 1811-5438 THE
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THE LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Con
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Monetary, Fiscal and Financial Sect
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The Lahore Journal of Economics Spe
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Reforming the Government in Pakista
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Implications for Economic Reforms i
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Determinants of Female Labor Force
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11. All references used in the text
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