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Granger-causality tests

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Testing<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

Reduced and recursive forms are used to summarize the comovements<br />

of those 3 series.<br />

Reduced form VAR is used to forecast the variables<br />

• Performance compared to alternate benchmark models<br />

The 2 different structural VARs are used to estimate policy changes<br />

and their repercussions<br />

Data Description<br />

VAR analysis uses reports from <strong>Granger</strong>-<strong>causality</strong> <strong>tests</strong>,<br />

impulse responses, and forecast error variance<br />

decompositions.<br />

Computed automatically by various software<br />

Because the dynamics of VARs are so complicated, these<br />

statistics are more informative than the estimated VAR<br />

regression coefficients, which are usually go unreported.

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