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2. Conceptual framework: the initial theory of change
implications for policy-makers designing interventions in this area, and (ii) they are
testable, meaning there appeared to be sufficient quality research available to make a
meaningful assessment of them.
Figure 2.2 sets out the theory of change as a logical flow from policy inputs to policy
outputs; to hypothesised outcomes, the assumptions on which they rest, and the counterassumptions
that challenge them; to the anticipated impact on learning outcomes,
efficiency, equity and accessibility and quality. Appendix 3 sets out the hypotheses,
counter hypotheses and assumptions more fully.
The hypotheses and assumptions were elaborated, interrogated and challenged throughout
the review process using the methodology set out in Section 3. Section 4 addresses each
assumption in turn, establishing the relative strength of the evidence for or against it.
Section 5 synthesises the strength of the evidence across all of the hypotheses and
identifies the gaps that indicate the need for further research. Section 6 proposes the
‘evidenced theory of change’ that emerges from the detailed analysis.
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