Head - Department of National Parks, Recreation, Sport and Racing

5 Tourism and support
infrastructure opportunities
32
The Fraser Coast Region – New Rooms
Required
Appendix 4 sets out the analysis of the number of rooms
required for the Fraser Coast region out to 2018.
Using data current as at 2007, 56 three scenarios are provided:
a demand driven scenario; a demand driven and supply led
scenario and a supply led scenario.
Under the demand driven scenario, existing room stock only is
considered against forecast visitor demand. Using the scenario,
one can see the need for new room development to meet
forecast demand. In the case of the Fraser Coast a 37%
increase in the number of rooms is required by 2018 to meet
forecast demand.
Under the demand driven and supply led scenario, existing
room stock and room stock under construction and with all
approvals is considered against forecast visitor demand. Using
the scenario, one can see the extent of room development
required to meet forecast demand, bearing in mind that there
are rooms under construction. In the case of the Fraser Coast
region a 22.6% increase in the number of rooms is required by
2018 to meet forecast demand.
Under the supply led scenario, existing room stock, room stock
under construction (with approvals) and all planned rooms are
considered against forecast visitor demand. Using this scenario,
one can see the extent of development required to meet
forecast demand, bearing in mind there are rooms under
construction and some rooms awaiting approval for
construction. In the case of the Fraser Coast region there will
be a need to increase the level of visitation beyond forecasted
levels (222,883 overnight visitors need compared to forecasted
192,883 visitors = 30,000 more visitors) to achieve an average
65% occupancy rate should all these planned and proposed
rooms actually be built between 2008 and 2018. 57
In developing the three scenarios for the Fraser Coast region,
the following assumptions apply:
� The average length of stay by visitors to the region will
increase to 3.0 visitor nights in 2018; 58
� The region’s operators have a desired average room
occupancy level of no less than 65%;
� Each room is substitutable59 for another for all visitors: that
is, the market for a resort room might also consider a
serviced apartment; and
� That all rooms that are currently under construction and that
are planned for construction are actually built and occupied.
For the Fraser Coast region, then:
� under the demand driven scenario, assuming current room
stock amounts to 3,209 rooms, there will be a need for
1,194 additional rooms by 2018;
� under the demand driven and supply led scenario, adding
current room stock of 3,209 to those currently under
construction amounts to 3,589 rooms, there will be a need
for 814 additional rooms by 2018;
56 Data from Tourism Queensland and ABS.
57 Data from Tourism Queensland and Fraser Coast RTO and base numbers sourced from the ABS for visitors and visitor nights.
58 the information assumes that the source data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Tourism Queensland on the average length of visitor stay on average is accurate
59 Not all rooms will be substitutable and potential visitors will select other destinations if, for instance, they cannot get into a resort on the Fraser Coast.
Bundaberg-Fraser Coast Tourism Opportunity Plan 2009-2019
� under the supply led scenario, adding current room stock,
(rooms under construction and rooms planned) amounts to
4,489 rooms, there will be a need to increase visitor growth
by a further 30,000 overnight visitors to avoid an
oversupply of rooms by 2018.
It should be noted that the level of forecast visitor growth is
based on extrapolation of data provided by the Tourism
Forecasting Council figures of 2007 (Issue 2).
It is also likely that with the introduction of new visitor
attractions as outlined in this TOP visitor growth should most
likely exceed stated growth levels.
The forecast for new rooms in Fraser Coast should therefore
be considered conservative overall.
Table 5: Increase in the number of rooms for the Fraser
Coast region (2008-2018)
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Room stock
3,209
Rooms
required
1,194
Room stock
3,589
Rooms
required
814
Demand Driven Scenario Demand Driven and
Supply Led Scenario
Room stock
4,489
Rooms
required
65
Supply Led Scenario
The Fraser Coast Region – Upgrades To
Accommodation Facilities
To achieve the vision for the Fraser Coast region, refurbishment
of existing accommodation stock is required, across the board.
As indicated above, an average refurbishment cost has been
assumed of $65,000 per room for the region. Feedback
indicates that a number of rooms may actually need to be
totally redeveloped rather than merely refurbished. As there is
no accommodation sector audit to base this on it was decided
not to make any assumptions on the percentage of current
room stock which needs to be demolished and rebuilt.
Anecdotal industry feedback notes the need to look at
redevelopment of existing motel facilities, backpacker hostels
(in particular) to ensure the room stock and offer is attractive to
target visitor markets.
On the basis that between 4,403 and 4,554 rooms may need
to be refurbished over the next 10 years, a total investment of
between $305 million and $426 million may be required.