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Figure 9: Vertically pointing Doppler spectra from a Micro Rain Radar (MRR). See text forexplanation.Precipitation ForecastingA 1km with a double moment scheme with 6 categories (snow, graupel, ice crystal, rain,drizzle, freezing rain, ice pellets) was used for forecasting (Mailhot et al, 2010). The 1kmmodel was initiated through a nesting with lower resolution models (2.5 and 15 km) andwas often able to capture the details of the precipitation. It is still being evaluated.-84-
Figure 10: Model forecasts of various precipitation types presented as meteograms. On the left,verification observations are provided by a forecaster on-site and on the right, the high resolutionSNOW-V10 instrumentation provided the observations, some of which do not agree with eachother.In-situ ObservationsFig. 10 (right) show some of the observations made with automated precipitationintensity and type instruments. Using different sensing technologies, there aredifferences in the measurements and this is an active area of investigation. Fig. 11shows measurements by in-situ snow micro-photographers overlaid on a vertical profileof liquid water produced by a microwave profiling radiometer. The sequence of photosshow a sequence of snow crystals, some of which are more rimed than others over theperiod of observation which appear to be consistent with the liquid water observations.These latter observations are still in the process of development. This figure shows thecomplexity of the environment and the impact on the precipitation processes.-85-
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World Meteorological OrganizationWW
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ForewordWeather disasters often ari
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CONFERENCE SCHEDULEThird WMO Intern
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Conference program for the third WM
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Conference program:A. High impact p
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B3. 13:45-15:40 Session Chair: Rich
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P. 19:15-20:30 19-20 Oct. 2010 Post
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H. Conference summaryConvener: Chun
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Session AHigh impact Precipitation
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1. IntroductionSynoptic and Mesosca
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and PS each accounting for about 20
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ain-producing storms (Schumacher an
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Houze, R. A., Jr., S. A. Rutledge,
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Convection over the Taunus Mountain
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in the southeast of the investigate
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Spatial and Temporal Variations of
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were normalized to sum 1 to give th
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during the continuous one day (Rx1d
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The Weather Research and Forecastin
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Convective rainfall in wet runs is
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On the Study of Tropical Cyclone Ra
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Fig.2 Severe tropical storm Bilis (
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Numerical simulation (Zhu H.Y, et a
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Influence of Typhoon Songda (2004)
Page 53 and 54: southeastern part of typhoon circul
Page 55 and 56: the thermal structure is asymmetric
Page 57 and 58: The estimation of TC quantitative p
Page 59 and 60: from 0000 UTC on 8 August 2009 to 0
Page 61 and 62: and 1.23:1 in 24h, indicates that t
Page 63 and 64: in the latter 24-h, on average, the
Page 65 and 66: 4. Sensitivity experiment results1)
Page 67 and 68: ReferencesChen, L., and Y. Ding, 19
Page 69 and 70: of the documented intensity and tra
Page 71 and 72: Figure 1b shows the distribution of
Page 73 and 74: influence.In order to explain the v
Page 75 and 76: torrential rain days in 2009. The d
Page 77 and 78: over China mainland for the 32 typh
Page 79 and 80: Advances in Understanding the “Pe
Page 81 and 82: 3. Contributions of the east-west o
Page 83 and 84: Fig. 3. Hovmoller diagram of the ra
Page 85 and 86: convective band over the Taiwan Str
Page 87 and 88: The mechanism analysis of cloud and
Page 89 and 90: The simulations were performed with
Page 91 and 92: different sub-regions to interpret
Page 93 and 94: An Idealized Numerical Study on the
Page 95 and 96: The Effect of ENSO on the Summer Mo
Page 97 and 98: Session BQuantitative Precipitation
Page 99 and 100: Observations of Precipitation Proce
Page 101 and 102: elevation angle. It grows and then
Page 103: Figure 8: Outflow (above) and inflo
Page 107 and 108: ReferencesPaul Joe, Chris Doyle, Al
Page 109 and 110: produce the ‘predicted’ analysi
Page 111 and 112: asis. First, co-located daily CMORP
Page 113 and 114: used in this paper were obtained fr
Page 115 and 116: with thresholds of 0.1mm (including
Page 117 and 118: The Megha-Tropiques accumulated rai
Page 119 and 120: Figure 1 shows the flow chart of th
Page 121 and 122: Over the Ouémé site, the evolutio
Page 123 and 124: Starting from June 15 , 2 001, t he
Page 125 and 126: 5. Year and Season-wise Comparison
Page 127 and 128: QPE and QPF of Japan Meteorological
Page 129 and 130: By multiply ing calibrated echo int
Page 131 and 132: 4.3 ACCURACY OF VSRFCritical Succes
Page 133 and 134: Verification of Tropical Cyclones-R
Page 135 and 136: To co mpare t he ab ilities of 3B 4
Page 137 and 138: AllcasesLandfallTCsTable 3. TS, ETS
Page 139 and 140: The representation of the rain gaug
Page 141 and 142: 3 Results16Percentage(%)14121086200
Page 143 and 144: 403530Related Error(%)25201510504 C
Page 145 and 146: Recent Progresseson TC Precipitatio
Page 147 and 148: fields, particularly taking account
Page 149 and 150: form. The initial conditions of ens
Page 151 and 152: Comparative Study on QPE Methods of
Page 153 and 154: B3.2possible rain states that could
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B3.4Figure 2: Spatial temporal samp
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A Radar-based Technique for the Ide
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et al. (2007), the HEM obtained exa
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these calibration algorithms.7. Con
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CINRAD Warning Indexof Local Extrem
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Research of Rainfall Estimation usi
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Figure 1 has shown the relationship
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4. Summary and discussion(1) T he T
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Session CHydrologic prediction and
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Hydrological Perspective on QPE/QPF
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the river system in the basin. The
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(2) As input of the hydrological di
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satellite estimates) and the foreca
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NWP models’ Application in Flood
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Deltares’ Flood Early Warning Sys
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A further challenge for hydrologic
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2.2 Test areaHuaihe Basin locates i
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Fig. 4 The same as Fig.3, but at Wa
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Third WMO International Conference
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There is a unimodal pattern in the
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Number of days with 1mm and above95
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homogeneous (Fig. 1). Thi s area is
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a, without precipitation in future
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Session DVerification of Precipitat
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Intercomparison of verification met
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intensity f or pr e- and pos t-defo
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Figure 1: From Gilleland et al. (20
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New Model Evaluation Tools (MET) So
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During the HWT project, precipitati
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Figure 4: Example showing atmospher
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Performance Evaluation of the AREM
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0-24h and 24-48h, the improved mode
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Fig.4 24h accumulative precipitatio
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simple upscaling technique whereby
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(panel c) and 20mm/24h (panel d) fo
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A new field verification score base
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still overlapping the observed feat
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Case Description of forecast featur
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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GFS60 and NAM60 at the lowest thres
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difference between the two models i
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Scale-related Issues involving veri
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of scores for the GFS at heavier ra
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Fig. 4. Comparison of probability o
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From these equations one can see th
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Figure 2. Verification scores as a
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Session EData assimilation for prec
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Progress in data assimilation for N
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Here, k is the number of ensemble m
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0200pressure (hPa)400600800spread a
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Impacts of multiple radar data assi
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High Resolution Radar Accumulation
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3. MethodThe non-hydrostatic versio
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Figure 5: Accumulation in the Waipa
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J(X ) Jb Jo Jc1 T 1T X X ) B ( X
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prediction, and so forth, to observ
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experiment, velocity assimilated ex
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Cycle Forecasting System in China.
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successfully forecast by AREM-RUC a
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Session FPrecipitation variability
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FRepresentation of Monsoon Systems
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4 ResultsFigure 2: Monsoon mean pre
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explained by higher sea surface tem
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Variability of Rainfall, Increasing
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(a)(b)Figure 1 : (a) Change of Temp
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According the analy sis of rainfall
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the rainfall v ariability will high
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Regional Impact of Climate Change i
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Figure 2. Map of the classified wea
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Table 3. The num ber of weather st
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such a mo del. Second, we ha ve o b
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Joint fuzzy an alysis o f SST , SAT
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Variability of Equatorial East Afri
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(d)2.5 4.0 5.5(c)-10 0 10(b)-10 0 5
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Figure 4: (a) The first spatial mod
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Session GQuantitative Precipitation
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Ongoing developments on Limited Are
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een done but much i s s till needed
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Hacker, J., S.-Y. Ha, C. Sn yder, J
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the initial field as possible based
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One advantage of ensemble forecasti
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southern hemisphere through the equ
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model results predict rate moves in
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Term growth forecast s, th e error
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ponent of the Brier score is reduce
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in the combined field (Fig.3c). For
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Probabilistic QPF from a realtime m
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to help assessing impacts from diff
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abFigure 3.ETS scores of the 3-h ac
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Flow chart of multi-model rainfall
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GermanJapan NCEP Ens Forecaster(a)E
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methodology. However, the operation
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Research and Operation on Quantitat
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A numerical study of aerosol effect
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maximum cloud water mixing ratio in
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an increase in concentration of clo
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perturbations. Blending combines th
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Figure 2. Comparison of CRPSSof 12h
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Global QPF and QPE: Where do we hav
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countries, the 1 o 1 o GPCC rainfa
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determine the origin of these diffe
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Fig. 2: The global distribution of
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Fig. 4: Scatter plots showing the c
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Multiscale Spectral Structures of T
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mountain ridges and are anticipated
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triggered convection conditions pre
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Rainfall forecasts from the Met Off
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Figure 2: (a) Domain-averaged rainf
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4. Summary and discussionWe have de
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G3itself it is incapable of providi
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G3Precipitation for February 2nd, 2
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Can Multi-model ensemble forecasts
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amounts over thresholds, 1, 3, 5, 1
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In addition to combination of all t
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-Carry out the verification for oth
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How sensitive are probabilistic pre
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CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center M
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Among the alternatives that have be
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Based on the daily mean temperature
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the individual models and the EMN t
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The Development of Ensemble Predict
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70(a)70(b)60AREM-SY AREM-CTL AREM-E
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Poster Presentations-379-
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Coupling Ensemble weather predictio
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sub-catchments to be used as inputs
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This work was supported by the Rese
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3. DataFor the investigation the we
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Flash flood forecasting by coupling
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gauges. Fig. 1 shows the event accu
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The floods were sim ulated with bot
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Comparison of calibration technique
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10.10.010.00110.10.010.0010 0.2 0.4
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24-h rainfall forecast. Nevertheles
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ANALYSIS FOR TURBULENCE AND WIND GU
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Research and Application of Typhoon
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[3] TIAN H, MA K Y,LIN Z S. Analysi
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What’s more, th e tw o curves als
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precipitation in southern areas of
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Chen Huai, Wang Yongbo, Shi N eng,
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An hourly updated convection-allowi
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GFS dataset or any other reason, th
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Downscaling precipitation for weath
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abFig.2. The 24h accumulated precip
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A Kalman Filter based QPF calibrati
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Scale Parameter10090807060504030rai
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It is clear that the values of scal
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THE IMPACT OF NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROP
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negative in the northern hemisphere
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Establishment and Verification of M
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Multi-model Ensemble QPF for Southe
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(4)andcan be estimated for all mode
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Table 4 The number of observations
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gauge coverage is definitely not sa
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It would be an attractive result if
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Analysis on a permanent elongate co
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PECS grow. The evolution of meso-sc
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3 rd Conference on QPE /QPF an
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QPF verification using object-orien
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measure the S and A components resp
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5. ConclusionsSeveral problems aris
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2.1 MethodologyIn the EOF analysis,
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calculated respectively, the compar
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IntroductionProbabilistic predictio
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Once the models are obtained, they
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REFERENCES- Charles Mutai: 2000, Di
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This paper selects the process of w
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(b1)cntl (b2)snd (b3)cmwFig.5the cl
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(2) There is no much difference in
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Analysis of Convective Precipitatio
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F(per/6min)30025020015010050F(per/6
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Research on the Relationship betwee
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Fig.1 The k-Z relationship for smal
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esearch on the correction for atten
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22224diction of the heavy precipita
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Study on Mechanism of an Extra Rain
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which promoted the shear line devel
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References[1] SUN Shu-Qing and ZHOU
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the main p oints in our estimation
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QC test to reject the bogus faulty
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-499-
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The Impact of Parameterization of C
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LinThompsonMilbrandt-YauMorrisonFig
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MOST (Grant No. GYHY20070 6036), th
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National Meteorological Center (NMC
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Fig. 4 Comparison of percentile are
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Impact of Different Boundary Layer
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(a)observed rainfall,(b)simulated r
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In te rms of ener getics, the hea v
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The Estimation of Rainstorm Forecas
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Fig. 2 TS Score of accumulated 24h
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Study on the 3D Structure of Typhoo
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abFig.1 (a) Total precipitation (mm
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satellite images at 12:00BST on 18
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