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Zinner T. et al, 2008: Tracking and monitoring severe convection from onset over rapiddevelopment to mature phase using multi-channel Meteosat-8 SEVIRI data. Mon. Wea.Rev.,135,3248-3259.Keil C. and Craig G.,2007: A displacement-based error measure applied in a regionalensemble forecasting system. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,101,191-210.-420-
A Kalman Filter based QPF calibration systemHongping LAN 1 , Fanyou KONG 2 , Jiajia He 1 and Xunlai CHEN 1Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau 1 ,Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, USA 2hp2068@sina.comChina Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, the Center for Analysis and Pr ediction ofStorms, and the Shenzhen Institute of Advanc ed Technology, in a collaborative effort,developed a realtime radar data assimilation and forecasting system, called HAPS –referring to Hourly Assimilation and Predi ction System. Using WRF-ARW modelingsystem with a grid spacing of 4km, H APS analyzes radar data from seven S-bandDoppler radars in the region every hour and produc es 0-6 h QPF. HAPS QPF haslonger lead time compared to typical nowc asting s ystems, but location and intensityerrors exist. A method is proposed to cali brate HAPS 0-6h QPF using Kalman Filtertechnique and blend with 0-3h nowcasting QPF.Past QPF and corresponding QPE are first matc hed in locations. Intensities of QPF andQPE of the same locations are analyzed to obt ain intensity calibr ation field, which wil lbe applied to future forecasts to form calibrated QPF. Two location matching methods,,object matching and correlation coefficient matching, are tested and the later is selected.The working flow is : The correlation co efficient of the past 2h HAPS QPF andcorresponding QPE is calculated over a 500km by 500km region. If the correlationcoefficient is greater than 0.25, the QPF an d QPE are classified t o have same locationand their intensity difference field, assuming Gaussian noise distribution, is filtered usingKalman F ilter method to have a smoothed ca libration field. Wei ghting factors areapplied to the nowcasting QPF and HAPS QP F to produce intensit y calibrated andnowcasting calibrated QPF. Verification against automatic rain gauge data shows higherETS scores for the calibrated QPF compared to those without calibration.-421-
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World Meteorological OrganizationWW
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ForewordWeather disasters often ari
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CONFERENCE SCHEDULEThird WMO Intern
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Conference program for the third WM
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Conference program:A. High impact p
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B3. 13:45-15:40 Session Chair: Rich
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P. 19:15-20:30 19-20 Oct. 2010 Post
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H. Conference summaryConvener: Chun
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Session AHigh impact Precipitation
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1. IntroductionSynoptic and Mesosca
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and PS each accounting for about 20
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ain-producing storms (Schumacher an
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Houze, R. A., Jr., S. A. Rutledge,
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Convection over the Taunus Mountain
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in the southeast of the investigate
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Spatial and Temporal Variations of
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were normalized to sum 1 to give th
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during the continuous one day (Rx1d
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The Weather Research and Forecastin
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Convective rainfall in wet runs is
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On the Study of Tropical Cyclone Ra
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Fig.2 Severe tropical storm Bilis (
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Numerical simulation (Zhu H.Y, et a
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Influence of Typhoon Songda (2004)
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southeastern part of typhoon circul
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the thermal structure is asymmetric
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The estimation of TC quantitative p
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from 0000 UTC on 8 August 2009 to 0
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and 1.23:1 in 24h, indicates that t
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in the latter 24-h, on average, the
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4. Sensitivity experiment results1)
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ReferencesChen, L., and Y. Ding, 19
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of the documented intensity and tra
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Figure 1b shows the distribution of
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influence.In order to explain the v
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torrential rain days in 2009. The d
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over China mainland for the 32 typh
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Advances in Understanding the “Pe
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3. Contributions of the east-west o
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Fig. 3. Hovmoller diagram of the ra
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convective band over the Taiwan Str
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The mechanism analysis of cloud and
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The simulations were performed with
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different sub-regions to interpret
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An Idealized Numerical Study on the
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The Effect of ENSO on the Summer Mo
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Session BQuantitative Precipitation
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Observations of Precipitation Proce
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elevation angle. It grows and then
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Figure 8: Outflow (above) and inflo
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Figure 10: Model forecasts of vario
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ReferencesPaul Joe, Chris Doyle, Al
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produce the ‘predicted’ analysi
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asis. First, co-located daily CMORP
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used in this paper were obtained fr
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with thresholds of 0.1mm (including
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The Megha-Tropiques accumulated rai
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Figure 1 shows the flow chart of th
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Over the Ouémé site, the evolutio
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Starting from June 15 , 2 001, t he
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5. Year and Season-wise Comparison
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QPE and QPF of Japan Meteorological
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By multiply ing calibrated echo int
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4.3 ACCURACY OF VSRFCritical Succes
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Verification of Tropical Cyclones-R
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To co mpare t he ab ilities of 3B 4
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AllcasesLandfallTCsTable 3. TS, ETS
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The representation of the rain gaug
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3 Results16Percentage(%)14121086200
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403530Related Error(%)25201510504 C
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Recent Progresseson TC Precipitatio
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fields, particularly taking account
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form. The initial conditions of ens
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Comparative Study on QPE Methods of
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B3.2possible rain states that could
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B3.4Figure 2: Spatial temporal samp
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A Radar-based Technique for the Ide
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et al. (2007), the HEM obtained exa
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these calibration algorithms.7. Con
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CINRAD Warning Indexof Local Extrem
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Research of Rainfall Estimation usi
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Figure 1 has shown the relationship
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4. Summary and discussion(1) T he T
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Session CHydrologic prediction and
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Hydrological Perspective on QPE/QPF
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the river system in the basin. The
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(2) As input of the hydrological di
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satellite estimates) and the foreca
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NWP models’ Application in Flood
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Deltares’ Flood Early Warning Sys
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A further challenge for hydrologic
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2.2 Test areaHuaihe Basin locates i
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Fig. 4 The same as Fig.3, but at Wa
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Third WMO International Conference
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There is a unimodal pattern in the
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Number of days with 1mm and above95
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homogeneous (Fig. 1). Thi s area is
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a, without precipitation in future
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Session DVerification of Precipitat
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Intercomparison of verification met
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intensity f or pr e- and pos t-defo
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Figure 1: From Gilleland et al. (20
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New Model Evaluation Tools (MET) So
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During the HWT project, precipitati
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Figure 4: Example showing atmospher
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Performance Evaluation of the AREM
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0-24h and 24-48h, the improved mode
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Fig.4 24h accumulative precipitatio
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simple upscaling technique whereby
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(panel c) and 20mm/24h (panel d) fo
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A new field verification score base
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still overlapping the observed feat
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Case Description of forecast featur
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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GFS60 and NAM60 at the lowest thres
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difference between the two models i
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Scale-related Issues involving veri
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of scores for the GFS at heavier ra
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Fig. 4. Comparison of probability o
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From these equations one can see th
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Figure 2. Verification scores as a
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Session EData assimilation for prec
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Progress in data assimilation for N
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Here, k is the number of ensemble m
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0200pressure (hPa)400600800spread a
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Impacts of multiple radar data assi
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High Resolution Radar Accumulation
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3. MethodThe non-hydrostatic versio
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Figure 5: Accumulation in the Waipa
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J(X ) Jb Jo Jc1 T 1T X X ) B ( X
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prediction, and so forth, to observ
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experiment, velocity assimilated ex
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Cycle Forecasting System in China.
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successfully forecast by AREM-RUC a
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Session FPrecipitation variability
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FRepresentation of Monsoon Systems
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4 ResultsFigure 2: Monsoon mean pre
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explained by higher sea surface tem
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Variability of Rainfall, Increasing
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(a)(b)Figure 1 : (a) Change of Temp
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According the analy sis of rainfall
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the rainfall v ariability will high
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Regional Impact of Climate Change i
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Figure 2. Map of the classified wea
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Table 3. The num ber of weather st
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such a mo del. Second, we ha ve o b
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Joint fuzzy an alysis o f SST , SAT
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Variability of Equatorial East Afri
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(d)2.5 4.0 5.5(c)-10 0 10(b)-10 0 5
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Figure 4: (a) The first spatial mod
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Session GQuantitative Precipitation
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Ongoing developments on Limited Are
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een done but much i s s till needed
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Hacker, J., S.-Y. Ha, C. Sn yder, J
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the initial field as possible based
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One advantage of ensemble forecasti
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southern hemisphere through the equ
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model results predict rate moves in
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Term growth forecast s, th e error
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ponent of the Brier score is reduce
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in the combined field (Fig.3c). For
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Probabilistic QPF from a realtime m
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to help assessing impacts from diff
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abFigure 3.ETS scores of the 3-h ac
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Flow chart of multi-model rainfall
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GermanJapan NCEP Ens Forecaster(a)E
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methodology. However, the operation
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Research and Operation on Quantitat
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A numerical study of aerosol effect
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maximum cloud water mixing ratio in
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an increase in concentration of clo
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perturbations. Blending combines th
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Figure 2. Comparison of CRPSSof 12h
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Global QPF and QPE: Where do we hav
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countries, the 1 o 1 o GPCC rainfa
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determine the origin of these diffe
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Fig. 2: The global distribution of
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Fig. 4: Scatter plots showing the c
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Multiscale Spectral Structures of T
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mountain ridges and are anticipated
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triggered convection conditions pre
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Rainfall forecasts from the Met Off
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Figure 2: (a) Domain-averaged rainf
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4. Summary and discussionWe have de
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G3itself it is incapable of providi
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G3Precipitation for February 2nd, 2
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Can Multi-model ensemble forecasts
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amounts over thresholds, 1, 3, 5, 1
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In addition to combination of all t
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-Carry out the verification for oth
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How sensitive are probabilistic pre
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CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center M
Page 389 and 390: Among the alternatives that have be
Page 391 and 392: Based on the daily mean temperature
Page 393 and 394: the individual models and the EMN t
Page 395 and 396: The Development of Ensemble Predict
Page 397 and 398: 70(a)70(b)60AREM-SY AREM-CTL AREM-E
Page 399 and 400: Poster Presentations-379-
Page 401 and 402: Coupling Ensemble weather predictio
Page 403 and 404: sub-catchments to be used as inputs
Page 405 and 406: This work was supported by the Rese
Page 407 and 408: 3. DataFor the investigation the we
Page 409 and 410: Flash flood forecasting by coupling
Page 411 and 412: gauges. Fig. 1 shows the event accu
Page 413 and 414: The floods were sim ulated with bot
Page 415 and 416: Comparison of calibration technique
Page 417 and 418: 10.10.010.00110.10.010.0010 0.2 0.4
Page 419 and 420: 24-h rainfall forecast. Nevertheles
Page 421 and 422: ANALYSIS FOR TURBULENCE AND WIND GU
Page 423 and 424: Research and Application of Typhoon
Page 425 and 426: [3] TIAN H, MA K Y,LIN Z S. Analysi
Page 427 and 428: What’s more, th e tw o curves als
Page 429 and 430: precipitation in southern areas of
Page 431 and 432: Chen Huai, Wang Yongbo, Shi N eng,
Page 433 and 434: An hourly updated convection-allowi
Page 435 and 436: GFS dataset or any other reason, th
Page 437 and 438: Downscaling precipitation for weath
Page 439: abFig.2. The 24h accumulated precip
Page 443 and 444: Scale Parameter10090807060504030rai
Page 445 and 446: It is clear that the values of scal
Page 447 and 448: THE IMPACT OF NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROP
Page 449 and 450: negative in the northern hemisphere
Page 451 and 452: Establishment and Verification of M
Page 453 and 454: Multi-model Ensemble QPF for Southe
Page 455 and 456: (4)andcan be estimated for all mode
Page 457 and 458: Table 4 The number of observations
Page 459 and 460: gauge coverage is definitely not sa
Page 461 and 462: It would be an attractive result if
Page 463 and 464: Analysis on a permanent elongate co
Page 465 and 466: PECS grow. The evolution of meso-sc
Page 467 and 468: 3 rd Conference on QPE /QPF an
Page 475 and 476: QPF verification using object-orien
Page 477 and 478: measure the S and A components resp
Page 479 and 480: 5. ConclusionsSeveral problems aris
Page 481 and 482: 2.1 MethodologyIn the EOF analysis,
Page 483 and 484: calculated respectively, the compar
Page 485 and 486: IntroductionProbabilistic predictio
Page 487 and 488: Once the models are obtained, they
Page 489 and 490: REFERENCES- Charles Mutai: 2000, Di
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This paper selects the process of w
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(b1)cntl (b2)snd (b3)cmwFig.5the cl
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(2) There is no much difference in
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Analysis of Convective Precipitatio
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F(per/6min)30025020015010050F(per/6
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Research on the Relationship betwee
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Fig.1 The k-Z relationship for smal
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esearch on the correction for atten
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22224diction of the heavy precipita
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Study on Mechanism of an Extra Rain
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which promoted the shear line devel
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References[1] SUN Shu-Qing and ZHOU
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the main p oints in our estimation
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QC test to reject the bogus faulty
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-499-
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The Impact of Parameterization of C
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LinThompsonMilbrandt-YauMorrisonFig
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MOST (Grant No. GYHY20070 6036), th
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National Meteorological Center (NMC
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Fig. 4 Comparison of percentile are
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Impact of Different Boundary Layer
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(a)observed rainfall,(b)simulated r
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In te rms of ener getics, the hea v
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The Estimation of Rainstorm Forecas
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Fig. 2 TS Score of accumulated 24h
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Study on the 3D Structure of Typhoo
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abFig.1 (a) Total precipitation (mm
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satellite images at 12:00BST on 18
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