Extended Abstract

Fig.3 24h accumulative precipitation distribution of the observation and RUCmodel forecast at 0000 UTC 10 May 2010In Fig.4 the 24h accumulative precipitation distribution of the observation,RUC model forecast and ensemble mean forecast, probability distribution of50mm and 100mm of ensemble forecast at 0000 UTC 14 May 2010 is shown.The AREM improved model has good performance in the location and intensityof the main rain belt for 12-36h and 24-48h forecast, especially it gives stableforecast for the heavy rain in Jiangxi province. The precipitation distribution ofensemble mean’s 0-24h forecast is much close to the observation. The highprobability areas indicate the location where heavy rain happen.-198-