Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia - Environmental Health at ...

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changing ecosystems and land-use patterns, and increasing disasters. To address this issue in asystematic, strategic way, the scope of work has defined four tasks:1. Review the science concerning glacier melt in Asia2. Identify key glacier melt vulnerabilities in the Asia region3. Identify organizations contributing to addressing glacier melt and its impacts in Asia4. Develop strategic cross-sectoral responses to these vulnerabilities that provide multiplebenefitsThis report summarizes the findings of the four tasks.The geographic focus of this report is on the region of “High Asia” (see map on cover),sometimes referred to as the Greater Himalayan region; and the countries whose river watersflow from High Asia. High Asia includes the Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Pamir, and TienShan mountain ranges, where current glacier coverage exists; and all the countries of east,southeast, south, and central Asia are included.The greater Himalaya is not a single climate region: the eastern Himalaya are separated from theKarakoram-Hindu Kush mountains by approximately 2,000 kilometers. These two areas, eastand west, differ in climate, especially in sources and types of precipitation, and in glacierbehavior/dynamics. Moreover, no sharp dividing line exists between east and west; rather,conditions change gradually across this geographic spectrum.1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDYThe goal of the study reported here is to provide approaches to glacier melt, within the contextof climate change, based on state-of-the-art knowledge, to USAID Missions in three topic areas:(1) science related to glacier melt and high-altitude hydrology, (2) the impacts of changes nearand far in space and time, and (3) the organizations and activities already addressing these issues.The key strategy is then to identify cross-sectoral approaches that will have multiple benefits forimproving the safety, health and overall well-being of the region’s populations.1.4 METHODOLOGYTo carry out these tasks, the team concurrently developed a state-of-the-science report onglacier melt in High Asia and reviewed available information on organizations who are engaged inactivities that address aspects of glacier melt in the region. In consultation with USAID, the teamalso constructed maps within a geographic information system (GIS) to visualize the existingvulnerabilities that either arise from glacier melt or that will impede adaptation to glacier meltimpacts. The team, including USAID staff, then met to review these knowledge streams and todevelop candidate program concepts and approaches that would address the issues associatedwith glacier melt within the context of USAID’s mandate. Four team members discussed thecandidate program concepts and approaches with USAID Missions and stakeholders in India,Nepal, Thailand, and the Central Asian Republics. Stakeholder organizations included10
government agencies, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), research institutions, andmulti-lateral banks. With all of these inputs, the team further developed the program conceptsand approaches described in this document, emphasizing their cross-sectoral nature and thepotential for co-benefits.Team members’ expertise and experience is wide-ranging. Team members have backgrounds ingeography (snow physics), agronomy, sociology, forestry management, health, climate change,and development. The team collectively has decades of experience with USAID programs inAsia and elsewhere, in the fields of health, environment, agriculture, natural resourcemanagement, and disaster management programs. USAID team members were HeatherD’Agnes, Mary Melnyk, Rochelle Rainey, and Kristina Yarrow. Project team members includedRichard Armstrong (science assessment), Leona D’Agnes (health sector specialist), Jessica Ayres(survey of current activities), John Gavin (project manager), Scott Harding (disaster managementsector specialist), Elizabeth Malone (technical lead), Ken McNamara (agriculture sectorspecialist), Brian Melchior (geographer and GIS specialist), Fred Rosensweig (activities manager),and George Taylor (ecosystems and biodiversity sector specialist).1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORTThe following provides details on the organization and content of the succeeding sections of thisreport:Section 2 establishes the state of the science about glacier melt/retreat in High Asia andthe implications of that knowledge for climate change impacts, including current changesand threats as well as longer-term projections.Section 3, discusses the near-term and longer-term vulnerabilities of both societies andnatural systems to changes in glaciers and the hydrologic system in the region,particularly as current vulnerabilities may be exacerbated by climate change impacts.Section 4 provides an overview of ongoing activities that address issues arising out ofchanges in glaciers and the hydrologic system (a database of these activities is in theAppendix). Considering scientific knowledge, vulnerabilities, and current activities, Section 5presents program concepts and approaches—ways that USAID could approach theseissues in a cross-sectoral manner to realize co-benefits in sectors such as health, naturalresources, food security, and cross-boundary cooperation.Section 6 presents overall conclusions.11
Page 5 and 6: Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in
Page 7 and 8: AcknowledgementsThe diversity of in
Page 9: NGOOFDAPAIREDDRH/FPRIMESRDMASPOT5SR
Page 12 and 13: elevation, retreats. Measuring the
Page 14 and 15: Potential for Cross-Sectoral, Multi
Page 16 and 17: 7. More efficient, climate-change-r
Page 18 and 19: An outcome of this process was incr
Page 23 and 24: SECTION 2GLACIERS AND HYDROLOGIC CH
Page 25 and 26: complex and time consuming, so only
Page 27 and 28: The World Glacier Monitoring Servic
Page 29 and 30: and a decrease in the summer/winter
Page 31 and 32: alance. Berthier et al. (2007) comp
Page 33 and 34: forcing (climate change) (Ramanatha
Page 35 and 36: contribution, compared to total run
Page 37: These concerns are mirrored in the
Page 40 and 41: Human health and ecosystem impacts
Page 42 and 43: Glaciers are also an important sour
Page 44 and 45: and China (Figure 3.13 on page28).
Page 46 and 47: Figure 3.13. Projections of water s
Page 48 and 49: uncertainties about water availabil
Page 50 and 51: River Basin) include southern Kazak
Page 52 and 53: in action and the Mekong River Comm
Page 54 and 55: exacerbate vulnerability on the gro
Page 56 and 57: Another major information gap in th
Page 59 and 60: SECTION 5APPROACHES TO ADDRESSING C
Page 61 and 62: is deposited on reflective glacier
Page 63 and 64: Central Asian Republics. Like the I
Page 65 and 66: and snow water equivalent) and sate
Page 67 and 68: serious food security problems in P
Page 69 and 70: Another dimension of water manageme
Page 71 and 72:
increased attention to WASH interve
Page 73 and 74:
development that predispose areas t
Page 75 and 76:
Demographic and socioeconomic facto
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a. Strengthen the capacity of commu
Page 79:
carbon on young children. Appropria
Page 82 and 83:
4. Improved regional cooperation (t
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REFERENCESADB and IFPRI [Asian Deve
Page 87 and 88:
IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Cl
Page 89 and 90:
ased on Chinese Glacier Inventory a
Page 91:
APPENDIX ATASK 2 DATABASEThe databa
Page 95 and 96:
Current Work on Issues Related to G
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109:
Appendix A.2Summary by Region
Page 112 and 113:
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Page 117 and 118:
Page 119:
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