Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia - Environmental Health at ...

SECTION 3THE STATE OF SOCIETIES: VULNERABILITIES AND RESILIENCE TO THEEFFECTS OF GLACIER CHANGESFigure 3.1. Map of the Himalaya region - countries and river basins. Map credit: Brian MelchiorThe scientific report, as discussed in Section 2, demonstrated that current scientific knowledgedoes not provide definitive answers to questions about specific impacts on food security, watersecurity, flood and drought risks, population displacements, and ecologically sensitive areas. Wedo not have, for most of the vast region of High Asia (reference Figure 3.1), accurate estimatesof how much and how fast glaciers are receding, the effects of that process on river flow ratesand generally on water supply, the interaction of glaciers disappearing and other hydrologicchanges (such as monsoonal shifts), and what the results of all these changes will be foragricultural yields, irrigation and drinking water supply, health, and political stability.However, we do know that the world, including this region, is warming; that there are direct,near-term threats, such as GLOFs; and that the longer-term impacts of glacier melt will beexperienced through the water systems of the region, since the glaciers – along with monsoonsand other rain plus snow – contribute to the water supply of the region. Thus, we can make thefollowing assumptions:29